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Saturday Odds

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    • 10/30/2019 at 12:10 PM #110868
      UteBacker
      Moderator

      Stat experts- am I calculating this correctly?

      Massey gives us a 49% chance of beating Washington and gives USC a 46% chance of beating Oregon.  So the chances of the following scenarios are as follows:

      Utah W/ USC W 31.8%

      Utah W/ USC L 33.8%

      Utah L/ USC L 34.4%

      It’s going to be a stressful 7 hours on Saturday.  Buckle up.

    • 10/30/2019 at 12:12 PM #110869
      HoosierUte
      Participant

      What about a Utah L and USC W?

      • 10/30/2019 at 12:14 PM #110870
        HoosierUte
        Participant

        With both games at essential a 50-50 I’d put the probability of the best case (Utah/SC) W/L, worst case L/W and the pushes L/L, W/W at 25% each.  

      • 10/30/2019 at 12:16 PM #110871
        1
        UteBacker
        Moderator

        My bad!

        Utah W USC L  25.8%

        Utah W USC W  23.8%

        Utah L USC L  26.3%

        Utah L USC W 24.3%

        Personally, I give Utah maybe a 60% chance, but that’s purely from an eyeball test.

    • 10/30/2019 at 12:25 PM #110873
      2
      GameForAnyFuss
      Participant

      Utah W AND USC L: 26.5%
      Utah W AND USC W: 22.5%
      Utah L AND USC L: 27.5%
      Utah L AND USC W: 23.5%

      • 10/30/2019 at 12:34 PM #110875
        7
        EagleMountainUte
        Participant

        26.5 is happening. 

      • 10/30/2019 at 1:03 PM #110881
        1
        Mr Chainsaw
        Participant

        This is the correct answer.  Honestly I just want the Utah W, there is still too much football to worry about what other teams are doing.

        • 10/30/2019 at 5:57 PM #110895
          3
          Tony (admin)
          Keymaster

          And without a Utah W the rest is meaningless.

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