First CFP Poll comes out Tuesday.

8

Being here in SEC country and listening to all the south/east bias, I think we will be 10, maybe 9.

9 or 10. Hoping for higher. We don’t have a win against any current top 25 team that I can think of.

Probably 9, but maybe 8…

Georgia most likely will be highest 1-loss team (due to 2 “good” wins: ND and Florida) but will be interesting to see how penalized they get for that really bad loss at So Car…

Oregon should be next, as they have a “better” loss than either Oklahoma or us.

Then will be interesting to see whether they put Oklahoma ahead of us. Their loss to KState looking better right now than ours vs. USC…

No 2-loss team will be ahead of us, so that leaves #9.

I figured we come in at 10. 9 would likely be best case scenario

I think we should fall at the 8 or 9 spot but wouldn’t at all be surprised if we were ranked lower.  You never know with the playoff committee since they weight their criteria much more stringently than the AP does.  I think their first top 10 looks something like this:

1. LSU, 2. Ohio State, 3. Alabama, 4. Clemson, 5. Penn State, 6. Georgia, 7. Oregon, 8. Utah, 9. Oklahoma, 10. Florida.

I put us ahead of Oklahoma because like us they currently do not own a win over a currently ranked team.  They did have a neutral site victory over a ranked Texas but the Longhorns are no longer a Top 25 team according to the AP.  I think we have a similar loss, us losing to USC and them to Kansas State, and I think you could make a case that our win at Washington (being our best win) is better than their best win, a neutral-site victory over Texas. Also recency bias. We just won on the road while OU was on a bye after their loss.

This assumes the playoff committee decides to keep the 1-loss teams ahead of the 2-loss teams.  I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Florida ranked higher than us when they reveal their rankings.

we’re going to get penalized a tad for our OOC schedule.