According to 538, Oklahoma is our biggest obstacle to getting into CFP…

This topic has 19 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 5 years ago by rbmw263.

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- 11/03/2019 at 12:01 PM #111616
  
  gothamute
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  We need some help to get into CFP even if we win out (incl Oregon in P12 Championship). Oklahoma’s loss to KState “better” than ours to USC, which seems to play out in 538’s scenario simulator…
  
  Basically, any scenario in which Oklahoma wins out leaves us on outside looking in… we really need Oklahoma to lose again to have a chance to get into CFP IMO…
  
  And this doesn’t even factor in a 1-loss loser of LSU/Bama…
  
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
- 11/03/2019 at 12:27 PM #111618
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  SalUteopia
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  A bit far-fetched, but Clemson dropping one could really shake up the race.
  - 11/03/2019 at 12:42 PM #111620
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    gothamute
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    We really needed them to lose that game to UNC. The ACC is so bad that a 1-loss champ in the ACC is definitely NOT getting in… gotta hope they lose somehow
    - 11/03/2019 at 1:23 PM #111633
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      Central Coast Ute
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      What we really needed was to beat SC. Most important game of the season.
      - 11/03/2019 at 1:29 PM #111634
        
        gothamute
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        Yup. Do that and no argument we’d be in if we ran the table.
- 11/03/2019 at 12:29 PM #111619
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  PlainsUte
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  Mainly we need USC and Oregon to win out from here (up to the Pac-12 Champ game). That would elevate the USC loss and then if, and that is a huge IF, the Utes can beat Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship, then it would elevate that win. Not sure who Oklahoma would play, in the Big12 Champ game, Baylor or Iowa State??. If it came down to a “tie” between the Pac-12 Champ (Oregon or Utah, likely) and Oklahoma, I would hope the committee might give the nod to the Pac-12 since the Pac-12 has recently been left out and Oklahoma has had their chances in the CFP recently and lost in the semi-finals.
  - 11/03/2019 at 12:42 PM #111621
    
    gothamute
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    The computers don’t currently see it that way, unfortunately. But a lot can happen over the next month…
  - 11/03/2019 at 6:17 PM #111668
    
    PhiladelphiaUte
    Participant
    
    Personally, I could live with USC losing just one more game — for insurance purposes of course.
- 11/03/2019 at 12:48 PM #111622
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  Anonymous
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  IMO, if we go in with 1 loss, we won’t jump any 1-loss team from SEC/B10 this year. SOS/perception not good enough.
  - 11/03/2019 at 12:53 PM #111623
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    gothamute
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    Unfortunately, you are right. If you run the scenarios, undefeated (or even 1-loss) SEC/B10 champs are in for sure due to SOS. Undefeated Clemson would be in for sure but out, it looks like, if they lose given the weakness of ACC. 1-loss Penn State (if only a close loss to OSU if OSU wins B10) and 1-loss loser of LSU/Bama probably both in before us, and a 1-loss Okla probably in over us if they have two wins over a 2-loss Baylor…
    
    Basically, there is a (very) narrow path, but we need lots of help.
    - 11/03/2019 at 1:21 PM #111631
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      Mule
      Participant
      
      24% chance of making the playoff!? I see this as nothing but positive. I’ll take it!
      – Win out the regular season. 80%.
      – Beat Oregon. 50/50. Culumative 40%.
      – Which means we may only need one unexpected thing to happen to help us get in, such as (in order of most to least likely IMO):
      – Georgia loses to Auburn or in the Championship to LSU/ALA.
      – ALA to lose to LSU and/or Auburn.
      – OK to lose to Baylor (two chances) or OKST.
      – Clemson lose to Wake or to VA in the CCG.
      
      I’m booking my tickets to the PAC12 CCG game today!
      - 11/03/2019 at 1:31 PM #111637
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        gothamute
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        I think two of those things will need to happen… which is not impossible by any means, just not super likely. A 1-loss LSU/Bama loser will be in over us no matter what we do. And computers seem to think that a 1-loss Oklahoma defeating a 2-loss Baylor twice also jumps us. So we need both the LSU/Bama loser to lose again (I see you Georgia and Auburn!) AND either Oklahoma to lose again (in which case B12 problem solved) or Baylor to lose one in addition to losing to Oklahoma to devalue their B12 championship (in which case it’s a coin flip between us and them). But regardless how it all turns out, it is fun to realistically be in the mix this late in the season!
- 11/03/2019 at 1:41 PM #111638
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  UteFanatic
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  Our biggest obstacle in getting to the CFP is our next game against UCLA. I’m not even going to entertain the thought of making the playoff until we win out. Even if we win out in the regular season, Oregon is a tough matchup. So much football left to be played.
  - 11/03/2019 at 1:43 PM #111641
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    gothamute
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    100% right
  - 11/03/2019 at 2:16 PM #111643
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    Trailgoat
    Participant
    
    As Tyler Huntley said in the UW post game interview, “back to work”, the kid is a warrior. Natural leader very few athletes/people naturally have. His leadership is a huge under recognized contribution outside the team to Utah’s success. People are starting to notice.
    
    DTR will be to date the most athletic QB Utah faces in the P12 this year. Unfortunately for DTR, he has not seen a defense remotely close to Utahs. DTR will be slinging it inside the phone booth surrounded by Anae, Fotu, and all the others. Kelly will get his 50-60 yards on the ground, maybe less. Media is trying real hard to wish Chip back to his Oregon days with some recent success against teams Utah absolutely blasted.
    
    UCLA is on a bye as well. Utes coming off a bye given time to recover and prepare at home. Play their game, Utes finish up the 2nd half of the UCLA game with Tyler signing in plays and hugging Shelley and company after scoring TDs.
    
    TH ain’t going to let his team show up half ass in the last three games. Utes finish strong!
- 11/03/2019 at 1:42 PM #111639
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  bopahull
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  CFP is unlikely, but Roses are ther for the taking. GO UTES!!!!!!!
- 11/03/2019 at 4:04 PM #111653
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  X723
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  Yep I want us to play in the Rose Bowl !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- 11/03/2019 at 6:15 PM #111667
  
  PhiladelphiaUte
  Participant
  
  Bear in mind that if Baylor upsets Oklahoma, and remains undefeated, they WILL get in to the CFP ahead of any 1-loss Pac-12 team. So it isn’t just the Sooners we need be looking over our shoulders. We’re gonna need to keep our eye on the Bears as well.
  
  In a perfect world, Baylor loses @ TCU and/or to the Longhorns, but beat the Sooners in Waco. Then we’re golden.
  - 11/03/2019 at 6:59 PM #111674
    
    gothamute
    Participant
    
    Computers totally agree with you on undefeated Baylor. But there is NO WAY they will stay unbeaten. I’ve actually seen like 3 of their games in their entirety (thank you mid-week football when nothing else was on), and they were very lucky to have won all 3 that I watched. They are not nearly as good as their record. I think they will lose to TCU, Texas and Oklahoma. BUT… if they somehow run the table they will jump us for sure.
- 11/05/2019 at 3:06 AM #111994
  
  rbmw263
  Participant
  
  i think the difference in Utah/Okla probablility is coming from their higher stature in the models that the system is based on. Then, its not just “whose loss is worse”, its factoring in hypothetial resumes. If they win out, they will have added 2-4 more wins over ranked teams (baylor1-2x/ Kst/ISU in b12g, ISU reg season, and OSU). Utah would have 1 more in their run. Obviously, that means they have a tougher “win out” stretch, which is why their win out probability is lower even though their models think they are better
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