Utes Path to the Playoff

My take:
– Utes chances of winning out the regular season and beating Oregon in the CCG at 90x95x50(?)=43%. Slightly ahead of Oregon’s chances: 85x95x50(?)=40%.
– Big12. Oklahoma is the biggest overall threat (outside of our control). Their chances of winning out: 88x76x60(?)=40%. The CCG is in Arlington, TX, so maybe a home crowd advantage helps Baylor to keep it competitive (again). It’s basically a crapshoot as to which team the committee selects for the 4th spot. If we stay ahead of OK on Tuesday’s rankings, I don’t see OK jumping us for the final ranking. If they leapfrog us, there’s a big risk that the committee is setting the stage for Oregon to get in if Oregon beats us, or for OK to get in if we beat Oregon. Lame.
– SEC. Georgia is the next biggest threat. 83x98x35(?)=28%. LSU has to beat Georgia, or we’re hosed. CCG is in Atlanta, which helps Georgia unfortunately. Alabama is done.
– Big10. As long as OSU wins out, we’re fine. Big home game game for OSU this week against Penn St. Go Buckeyes!!
– ACC. Would be great if Clemson lost one so that there are 2 playoff spots up for grabs and not just 1. But all the other ACC teams unfortunately suck. Go not Clemson!