4th and inches call

Insurers have an expression: Low probability, high outcome event. The probability of Utah FAILING to gain the 1st down was very low, but if they failed, the other outcome of BYU coming back and scoring a TD for the win was a high undesirable outcome event with decent probability of occurrence. Worst case scenario with kicking the FG was exactly what we saw: BYU scoring a TD and either kicking a FG to go into OT, or going for 2 and the win. We saw the latter and they failed. Worst case scenario with going for it was to not make the 1st down and BYU marching down to score a winning TD.

If you listen to your emotions, you go for it on 4th down. If you approach this as a business and go purely by the numbers as Whitt did, then you do exactly as Whitt did. I was at the game and my vote was to go for it. I myself am a businessman specializing in the area of risk. I also manage substantial personal investment portfolios and have trained myself to never mix emotion with investment decisions. It can make for a boring reality, but the resultant smile from success is just as rewarding.

I can see playing it safe, but seriously I think they should have went for it. They are inches away from the first down. If they can’t get 3 inches against BYU who they had ran the ball down their throat the whole drive, then it would have wasted more time off the clock.

I would love to see an ’18-Wheeler’ package a la Texas or ‘Jumbo’ a la Stanford on that play. Bring in 3 extra linemen as TEs, and just blast through whatever the D does. Blast a hole in there.

But things worked out. Oh well, that was an exciting ending.

i had no problem with the call.  i also wouldn’t have had a problem if they had gone for it.  i was pretty sure about what whit was going to do.

I would have gone for it.  I know we won so in retrospect the field goal looked like a good idea, but at the time here is how I evaluate the outcomes.

1- The field goal gives you the 7 point lead of course, but doesn’t seal a win.  They can get a touchdown with an XP for OT or go for 2 for the possible win.

2- Kicking the field goal also ends the drive, giving them something like 2:42 on the clock with 2 time outs.

3- On the right hash at the about six yard line, that is a tough angle for the FG.  KW improved the angle with the delay of game penalty, but I still would have given roughly even odds of making the first down with making the field goal given that the line to gain was only inches away.

4- Stopping a team that has 4 downs instead of 3 with a prevent D is very difficult.  Especially given Taysom’s ability to run on broken plays when all the D is downfield.

5- Even if we don’t make the 1st down, we still have a 4 point lead, they are backed-up at the 6 yardline, and they still need a touchdown to win. Miss the field goal and the situation is the same, except that they get the ball further upfield at the 20.

6- Getting the 1st down lets the U take more time off the clock and would have caused BYU to use their final 2 timeouts.  We could still kick a FG and given the ball back with less time and them having no timeouts.  A TD wins the game.

I think the book that Kyle was looking at does calculate the odds for all teams, but in evaluating this decision, I would have evaluated the odds based upon this O-line vs BYU’s front on that drive.

• This reply was modified 8 years, 2 months ago by kazute.
• This reply was modified 8 years, 2 months ago by kazute.
• This reply was modified 8 years, 2 months ago by kazute.

Yeah again McCormick probably would have been the one to catch the ball and he would have maybe scored. Good hell Joe Williams did everything wrong on that play. His hips turning up field was even slow.