How Big12 announcement affects UofU

I’m putting this in the football category even though it has implications for the basketball program as well.

Football/Conference Big Picture: As far as football is concerned, this is obviously better for BYU than independence is/was. The Big12 going forward, at least in the near future will be just a hair below the Pac12 in terms of projected earnings from media contracts and such. This will continue to be the case as long as USC/UCLA/Washington continue to be mediocre at best… but if a team like USC returns to what it was during the Pete Carroll years, or even just a regular playoff contender, the Pac12 will be a top 2/3 P5 conference again. The simple truth is, the Pac12 has at least 4 teams with bigger markets/followings than anyone in the new Big12. The odds of any team from the Big12 becoming anything like USC was in the Carroll days are EXTREMELY thin. Even though Houston is arguably the worst of the new additions, I also think they could POTENTIALLY (If a LOT of things go right for many years in a row) become somewhat of a national powerhouse. They have a big money donor behind them, and they play in what I assume is a big market. If Texas struggles to stay relevant in the SEC, and Houston rattles of several conference championships in a row it may be possible that there is a world that they are the main draw for football hungry eyeballs in the state of Texas. As it currently stands, USC, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon all have far greater viewership potential (obviously assuming that they don’t suck ballsack) than any team in the Big12.

I actually think that if/when BYU becomes successful in the Big12, they could easily be the biggest draw for eyeballs in that conference. BYU has an irrationally loyal fanbase, something no other team in the new Big12 can claim. Their fanbase is national, and a half dozen years of competing for Big12 championships will generate a lot of excitement for a team that hasn’t played for anything meaningful since 1984 (unless you count MWC championships or second tier bowl games). The problem with BYU being your conference’s flagship program is that, while it does have a nationwide fanbase, it really doesn’t have the potential to pull in many more fans that it already has. If you aren’t living in Utah and/or a member of their faith, cheering for BYU as your number 1 team is highly unlikely. With Kalani at the helm they could get a lot of eyeballs as the likeable other team that people watch when nothing else is on… but it won’t go much further than that. BYU being their top team is not the best case scenario for the Big12 (just like it wouldn’t be for Utah to be the top dog in the Pac12).

Now, that is a lot of ifs ands and buts, but what does it all mean for Utah right now? I think BYU going to the Big12 is a good thing for the University of Utah, at least for the next half dozen years or so. This gives both programs permission to finally admit that they don’t need each other anymore. They will still play at least once every 2 or three years of course, but both schools can now move on. I honestly don’t believe these two schools will compete for big time recruits much going forward. The guys who were always going to go to BYU will continue to choose BYU. The guys who wouldn’t go to BYU if their life depended on it still won’t. Utah and BYU will continue to compete for the rest of the in state stars along with Oregon/Washington and presumably more Big12 schools now. If it comes down to BYU/Utah for a recruit, Utah still has the edge in virtually every possible way. More success, better facilities, a (slightly) better conference (with much more attractive and historically significant road destinations), a better chance of making it to the NFL (depending on position I suppose)

Basketball: Utah was already losing recruits to TSPP as we all know because our program is a dumpster fire, and something tells me Smith isn’t going to change that. BYU going from the WCC to the Big12 doesn’t change that. It will be interesting to see how their team performs in what is arguably the best basketball conference. They didn’t win anyting in the WCC, they probably won’t win anything in the Big12. The difference is that if they have a year where they finish in the top 3 of the conference, they’ll get more respect than they got in the WCC for accomplishing the same thing (for good reasons). If for some reason there is a recruit out there deciding between us and them, they would surely (and really should if they aren’t stupid or desperate for immediate playing time) choose BYU.

Congratulations TSPP! (on your conference invite and your soon to be 10th loss in a row to the better team).