We’re 4 weeks from the end of the season and I’ve been intrigued by how the division races have been shaking out. I did my best to map it out clearly, including only the teams that I felt have a reasonable shot at contention. Here is a brief overview of what I’m seeing:
South:
1. Utah
Conf. record: 4-1
Tie breaker wins: ASU, UCLA, USC
Tie breaker losses: None
Clinches championship berth: With 3 wins or 2 wins and an ASU loss
Remaining opponents: Stanford (Away), Arizona (Away), Oregon (Home), Colorado (Home)
2. ASU
Conf. record: 3-2
Tie breaker wins: UCLA
Tie breaker losses: Utah
Clinches championship berth: 4 wins and 2 Utah losses or 3 wins and 3 Utah losses
Remaining opponents: USC (Home), Washington (Away), OSU (Away), Arizona (Home)
North
1. Oregon
Conf. record: 4-1
Tie breaker wins: None
Tie breaker losses: None
Clinches championship berth: Must win out or see North opponents lose
Remaining opponents: Washington(Away), WSU (Home), Utah (Away), OSU (Home)
2. WSU
Conf. record: 4-2
Tie breaker wins: OSU
Tie breaker losses: None
Clinches championship berth: Must win out or beat Oregon and have Oregon lose an additional game
Remaining opponents: Oregon (Away), Arizona (Home), Washington (Away)
3. 0SU
Conf. record: 3-2
Tie breaker wins: Washington
Tie breaker losses: WSU
Clinches championship berth: Must win out with a WSU loss
Remaining opponents: Colorado (Away), Stanford (Home), ASU (Home), Oregon (Away)
4. Washington
Conf. record: 3-2
Tie breaker wins: None
Tie breaker losses: OSU
Clinches championship berth: Must win out with a OSU loss
Remaining opponents: Oregon (Home), ASU (Home), Colorado (Away), WSU (Home)
Outlook:
Utah is sitting very much in command of the South division, and I believe that I read somewhere they have a 90+% chance of reaching the Conference Championship game. Having seen ASU’s recent struggles I expect them to drop at least 1 more game, meaning Utah would lock up their spot with 2 wins. Utah has the easiest finishing slate, playing 3 of the conference’s lowest ranked teams.
Despite Oregon being the favorite, the North spot could go to any of the 4 top teams. Each of the contenders will get a crack at the Ducks as well, and I would not be surprised to see an OU loss to at least one of those teams. A marquee game in SLC could also muddy the waters with a Utah win. Oregon also has arguably the toughest finishing slate as none of its opponents are currently out of their division races and all will be hungry for a signature win.
Iowa State @ 
Utah 
.
