2. No. 20 Utah 43, No. 7 USC 42
What happened: USC’s beautiful offense nearly knocked Utah out early with touchdowns on each of its first three drives. But the Trojans’ ugly defense allowed five TDs on the Utes’ final six drives — the only time they didn’t score was when they lost a fumble at the USC 3 — and Cameron Rising’s touchdown and 2-point combo rushes put Utah ahead for the first time with 48 seconds left.
The teams combined for 1,118 yards (7.7 per play), and while USC recovered both of the game’s fumbles and therefore won the turnover margin, the Trojans went 0-for-2 on fourth downs while Utah went 3-for-3. That made the eventual difference.
What it means: In the big picture, it means the Pac-12 is now far less likely to have a team in the CFP. The Playoff Predictor put USC’s odds at 19% heading into Week 7, while no one else was above 4%. Now the Trojans still lead the way at only 8%.
We should know by now, however, that playoff bids aren’t a direct proxy for conference strength — Clemson snared a bid through a mostly weak ACC on many occasions, after all — and Utah’s win just made a potentially wild Pac-12 title race even more intriguing. SP+ gives UCLA a 40% chance of winning the conference title, while Oregon is at 30%, Utah 17% and USC 12%. (SP+ has never liked USC as much as ESPN’s FPI, the driver of the Playoff Predictor, and it has liked UCLA more for most of the season.)
Those odds will see another shift after next week’s UCLA-Oregon game. The plot twists might only be beginning. But Saturday affirmed that as elite as USC’s offense is, the defense, which now ranks 56th in defensive SP+ and 87th in yards allowed per play, is in no way CFP worthy. And now the Trojans probably won’t be either.
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