Conference Realignment

I really like your last sentence. 

The last sentence is gold. Absolutely true.

What I think happens:

The P10 gets a deal, probably slightly higher than the B12. Oregon and UW continue to try to get into the B1G. Scheer’s tears continue to flow. We go through all this again in 2028 or so. Hopefully the P10/12 has had Utah/Oregon/UW been to the playoffs multiple times. 

My cougarboard fantasy:

In 2030, there is another shakeup. USC, Texas and Oklahoma are tired of coming in 4-7th in their new conferences. TV and conference commissioners want salary caps, unions, etc. 

The B1G, SEC and ACC want to break off but those three teams don’t really fit. 

So USC, UCLA, Texas and Oklahoma join the P10/12 and make the P14/16 and are the fourth conference in the new division. 

And the funny thing is, that’s more likely than any cougarboard-Utah-is-gonna-fail conspiracy. 

I don’t really care other than I ignored most things from Zoobie town. What some myopic online fan board thinks about anything is not even in my mind until I read this post.  
I would say this needs to be in another category so I can continue to ignore TDS until Utah plays them again. 

My prediction: PAC 12 gets their deal, somewhere between $32m and $35m per school, per year, and they add SDSU and SMU. After the next round of realignment happens somewhere around 2030, the BIG and SEC scoop up the remaining teams they’ll want from the ACC and possibly the PAC 12. The good schools remaining from the PAC, Big 12, and ACC break off and form their own conference to place themselves solidly in third place. This is where I would bet the Utes end up. 

That’s my prediction. However, I would not be surprised to see the PAC add a few big 12 schools this round. The negotiations are taking a while and that would be a likely reason. Yormark rushed because he’s afraid of the PAC. Several schools in the big 12 like TTU, Kansas, UH, among others would love to sit at the same table as Stanford and Cal. Just my thoughts.

I think the Big 12 GOR runs to June ’25. I never heard a change or noted a new one was done. If so they have some stress coming up to see if a school moves. Also the Pac needs to get everyone to sign one. If Oregon and Washington was to move slow they could be left out waiting for the BIG which might not happen. They would also condemn their sister schools to the MWC. I expect a healthy Pac settled in this spring.

The CB might be an occasional bit of entertainment but the world record depth of one sided views along with organized hope and prayer will make you less informed due to your visit.

I’m not sure about the future of the Pac12. I think Utah will be fine either way. I lurk on CB, and I’ve noticed that they seem to think Utah wouldn’t/shouldn’t get an invite to the Big12 because BYU already brings the Utah market, and that’s all that matters (more eyeballs = more money). The thing is, better football teams create a more compelling product that would attract more eyeballs. If Utah Joined the Big 12 they would immediately be a top 3 program in the Big12 (with TCU and Oklahoma State and not including OU and Texas). If the Big12 wants to survive, they need teams that can compete for a spot in the playoff. They need top football teams… and if the PAC-12 folded, Utah would be the best-fitting highly-regarded (not elite by any means but better than the other options) team available for the Big12 to add.

Also, BYU hasn’t been the #1 draw in the state of Utah for years now. That would be Utah (at least according to some yearly survey’s I’ve seen). BYU gets great viewership numbers because they have a strong presence across the planet, not because they are the number 1 draw within the state of Utah. If you want the Utah market, you need the state of Utah’s most watched team, which is Utah (based on the things I’ve seen, that could be wrong, BYU is certainly not far behind).

As far as the TSPP fans talking about Utah on CB constantly, I would say this. CB members often whine about how toxic the rivalry has gotten, while Utah fans seem to think the opposite, that it isn’t nearly as bad as it once was… I think the shift in perception has happened as a result of the current success of both programs. BYU used to be much better than Utah in football. Back then, BYU fans were comfortable with the rivalry because their team was clearly better, and insults from UofU fans was just petty ankle biting from the little brother. Well, that has changed now, and Utah is without a doubt the better program of the two. Now the roles in the rivalry have switched. Utah fans are comfortable with the fact that their team is almost always better than BYU, and BYU fans suddenly feel like the rivalry is toxic because they are on the losing end of it the vast majority of the time. Because of this, they feel the need to ankle bite. For a while it was trash talk about how Utah would never compete in the Pac12, and how Utah didn’t belong… Then we won the conference twice in a row, and now it’s just “well, the Pac12 sucks anyway so there!”

One last TSPP related thought I had… TSPP fans sound an awful lot like Utah fans did when they got into the Pac12, particularly in their praise for Yormark. REALLY REALLY REALLY reminds me of how we felt about Larry Scott when he brought us into the PAC12. 

Sure, it feels great to finally be a part of the P5 now… but what is it going to feel like in a decade or so after the B1G and SEC have had another decade to distance themselves from every other conference (assuming the Big12 even exists then)?

Thanks for posting Ted, always enjoy the banter between our rival bases. 

Truth be told – definitely worried. The Pac really does seem doomed. I do think, and maybe this is because I am biased, if the Pac fails, Utah/BYU will once again be conference mates on the B12, and it’ll be fantastic. 

Of course I am somewhat anxious about Utah being left in purgatory if the Pac folds. But, I have to check myself that this is probably less likely. Utah, as an institution, ‘should’ be sitting at the adults table. 

Y’all are fooling yourselves of you don’t think the PAC is in deep sh*t. Kliavkoff blew it big time. 2 major media platforms just pulled out of negotiations and ESPN already gave a preliminary number below ever P5 league. Putting all of the tier 1/2 inventory on a streaming platform like prime would be the nail in the coffin.

Not to mention, Arizona is all but sold on leaving for the Big 12 and Oregon and Washington won’t sign anything longterm in hopes of a B1G invite.