Offensive points per game – Rising vs. Barnes

This topic has 11 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 3 months ago by 2008 National Champ.

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- 09/05/2023 at 2:09 PM #194976
  
  Yergensen
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  Ran the numbers to understand the drop off in offensive productivity, specifically in points per game, when Rising is out.
  
  From 2022 thru first game of 2023 we average 38.5 offensive points per game with Rising on the field vs. 25 points per game with Barnes or other backup (NJ vs. FL) on the field, almost a 2 TD difference.
  
  It’s fair to talk about situational effect and Barnes needs more time. Things to consider, in Barnes 2 starts, we didn’t see much difference in points scored between the two games, one of which we know for certain he was prepared and game planned around. Also, going back to his first starts in 2021, Rising didn’t need much of a ramp-up.
  
  Basis assumes exclusion of defensive touchdowns scored, but inclusion of offensive points scored (td & fg) coming off a defensive turnover (ex. Vaki interception against FL that Barnes took ~10 yards for TD is credited to offense, too hard to isolate the offensive points scored enabled by the defense in any game let alone season). Games played by both Rising and Barnes (eg 2022 SUU, 2022 CU, 2022 Penn St) were treated as half games for each.
- 09/05/2023 at 4:03 PM #194987
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  2008 National Champ
  Participant
  
  Is anyone claiming that peak Barnes is equal to peak Rising? To me the real question we are all struggling with is whether who knows what % Rising will be is greater than some combination of Barnes/Johnson.
  
  Personally, I really don’t care who gets the job done as long as it gets done. And I don’t ever want to see another half where the team runs 19 plays and gains 50 yards. The offensive coaches have some serious questions to answer for that half and I look forward to seeing what they came up with.
  - 09/05/2023 at 5:45 PM #195003
    
    Yergensen
    Participant
    
    In every Barnes supporter and non-supporter post, there is one consistency and that is Rising > Barnes. This simply quantifies how much the drop off is and it is substantial.
    - 09/05/2023 at 6:35 PM #195017
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      2008 National Champ
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      Rising is the elephant in the room and will continue to be through next season. It’s just as tough to fill in for someone with his credentials as it will be to take over for him.
      
      Rather than compare all Utah games over that time period, what about similar teams since Barnes hasn’t had the chance to play everyone. 2021 WSU was Rising’s 4th game and 2022 WSU was Barnes’s 3rd (I think). You could also compare 2022 Florida v 2023 Florida.
      
      Rising 2021 WSU: 13-23 (56.5%), 137, 0 TD, 0 Int, 5-32 (6.4), 0 TD
      Barnes 2022 WSU: 17-27 (63.0%), 175, 1 TD, 0 Int, 8-51 (6.4), 0 TD
      
      Rising 2022 Florida: 22-32 (68.8), 216, 1 TD, 1 Int, 7-91 (13.0), 0 TD
      Barnes 2023 Florida: 12-18 (66.7), 159, 1 TD, 1 0 Int, 3-11 (3.7), 0 1 TD
      
      There really isn’t that much difference between the two, especially when you consider Rising had 10 starts between 2021 WSU and 2022 Florida as well as an entire offseason as the starter to refine his craft. Barnes didn’t have the same experience between his two games, nor the opportunity to pad his stats against the really bad defenses Utah faced in 2021/2022.
      
      I am not in any way trying to say that Barnes is the answer at QB. But I’m also not completely sold that the kid who ran the ball 5 times last year and threw one halfback throwback against a crap defense is going to be the next Lamar Jackson. There’s a reason they were QB3 and QB4 in fall camp. How about we let them play and figure out what we’ve got instead of deciding their value before they have a chance to prove it?
      
      Edited due to idiocy on the part of the poster
      - 09/06/2023 at 8:06 AM #195043
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        Scott
        Participant
        
        Except Barnes didn’t throw an interception in the Florida game and did in fact score a rushing TD.
        
        09/06/2023 at 11:47 AM #195074
        
        2008 National Champ
        Participant
        
        Oh man, I deserve about 35 downvotes for that. Thanks for the correction.
      - 09/06/2023 at 8:52 AM #195051
        
        RoboUte
        Participant
        
        If I understand the stats correctly it’s missing the Barnes rushing TD. I would say he played a superior game against Florida considering that the lack of a game ending int. Though neither was great.
        
        I think a significant portion of Cam’s value proposition is his leadership. He seems to be the type of player that elevates people around him and that’s very rare and powerful. Which is good because I’ve never and still don’t find Cam to be incredibly talented. Him replacing Huntley is probably skewing my vision because Tyler is incredibly talented and prior to Tyler we had Wilson who simply willed his way to every victory he had, he probably shouldn’t have even been playing the QB position he was just such a gamer and generally athletic that he made it work.
- 09/05/2023 at 4:28 PM #194991
  
  PlainsUte
  Participant
  
  What seems to hurt Barnes is his forte’ is passing to WRs (first play of Fla game), while Ludwig tends to settle into a run-first or dink-and-dunk pass to TE or RB game, especially once the Utes have a lead. Also vs Fla the ohfense didn’t get much run support from the OL — NJ had to break some tackles and juke some players in the open field to score.
  
  Rising seems to thrive in the Utah offensive scheme and can pick up yards on broken plays, that makes the difference of at least 7-10 pts on the scoreboard, IMO.
- 09/05/2023 at 6:14 PM #195012
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  NorthernUte
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  I guess I’m confused why people are bagging on Barnes… Rising is obviously a more complete QB, but Bryson is 2-0. He gets the job done and has never proven otherwise, and Coach Whitt is the Head Coach for a reason. Maybe he knows what’s best for the team. IMO Bryson is a great QB and has never lost for us, so I’m riding that train until he proves otherwise.
  - 09/06/2023 at 8:38 AM #195046
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    PlainsUte
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    I don’t think people are “bagging” on Barnes, just trying to quantify, what, if any, drop off is seen from QB1 to QB2. If there’s no dropoff then you could call them QB1a QB1b. But I don’t think you’ll see disagreement that if both are 100% healthy Rising is going to get the call.
  - 09/06/2023 at 9:44 AM #195056
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    EagleMountainUte
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    Criticism isn’t disparagement. You don’t always have to be a gilded optimist to be a fan.
    - 09/06/2023 at 10:31 AM #195063
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      RoboUte
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      A concept very very very few understand.
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