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Home vs away in the post 2020 era

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    • 10/16/2023 at 11:01 AM #200962
      Ghost of the HEB
      Participant

      Here’s how we’ve faired in home and true away games in this era of Utah football (21,22,23):
      Home
      16-0
      O: 36.6 PPG
      D: 14 PPG
      ————————
      Road
      7-7
      O: 26.2 PPG
      D: 22.6 PPG
      Is the RES effect so strong that it makes up for our deficiencies, or are we a great team that has just has road issues?

    • 10/16/2023 at 12:03 PM #200996
      2
      2008 National Champ
      Participant

      Too small a sample to be definitive. Of those 7, there’s really only two that could be considered “bad” losses.

      ’21 parochial school (10-3)
      ’21 San Diego State (12-2)
      ’21 Oregon State (7-6)
      ’22 Florida (6-7)
      ’22 UCLA (9-4)
      ’22 Oregon (10-3)
      ’23 Oregon State (6-1 currently)

      combined record of the teams they lost to is 60-26 (.697). Not many teams in the country win consistently on the road against that quality

      • 10/16/2023 at 12:13 PM #200998
        2008 National Champ
        Participant

        At the same time, Utah’s 7 wins are not very impressive.

        ’21 USC (4-8 and had just fired their coach)
        ’21 Stanford (3-9)
        ’21 Arizona (1-11 in first year with new coach)
        ’22 Arizona State (3-9 and had just fired their coach)
        ’22 WSU (7-6)
        ’22 Colorado (1-11)
        ’23 Baylor (currently 2-4)

        combined record 21-60 (.259). With the exception of the ’22 Florida and ’22 WSU, Utah loses to teams with winning records on the road and beats the teams they should. It really isn’t any more intuitive than that.

        • 10/16/2023 at 12:51 PM #201013
          Ghost of the HEB
          Participant

          So, we always beat bad teams on the road, and always lose to good teams on the road. That logic checks out, but doesn’t bode well for our chances against SC and Washington.

          • 10/16/2023 at 1:12 PM #201017
            4
            2008 National Champ
            Participant

            Now that we’ve established the rule, it’s time to start finding the exceptions. Saturday seems as good a time as any

    • 10/16/2023 at 12:15 PM #201001
      2 1
      Tony (admin)
      Keymaster

      All of these stats make me more unsure than I was before I read them.

    • 10/16/2023 at 12:49 PM #201012
      SalUteopia
      Participant

      The real question to me is: what causes the away performance to be so different? Is it the prep, the lack of familiarity, the hostile environment (let’s be honest, there are maybe 2-3 hostile environments in P12)? And the RES atmosphere is amazing, but is it really that much of a difference maker? For example, I feel more confident of our UO game than the away UA game (relatively speaking that is), and purely because we get UO at home.
      So is this purely psychological, and is there no way to address it?

      • 10/16/2023 at 1:20 PM #201018
        2008 National Champ
        Participant

        There’s a reason that the oddsmakers give anywhere from 3 to 7 points for home field advantage v neutral field. When two fairly evenly matched teams face each other, that’s a huge advantage.

        I also track the Team Talent Composite and the actual results say that since 2015, the more talented team on the road wins 56% of the time while they win 70% at home. That means that it’s not a Utah issue, it’s a CFB issue.

        • 10/16/2023 at 2:51 PM #201028
          SalUteopia
          Participant

          Yeah, it seems like a CFB-wide issue. And I’m guessing even that 56% number is propped up by the elite teams. Somehow I feel, and this might be a homer take, that Utah is capable of getting over this hump, but for whatever reasons it hasn’t happened (yet).

          • 10/16/2023 at 7:19 PM #201042
            2008 National Champ
            Participant

            I took all of the FCS teams out but there are still a lot of G5 at P5 games in that dataset which would seem to inflate the home number.

            Edit:

            G5 v G5: road 676-1300 (52.0%), home 828-1327 (62.4%)
            P5 v P5: road 823-1392 (59.1%), home 969-1384 (70.0%)
            P5 v G5: road 136-202 (67.3%), home 580-682 (85.0%)

    • 10/16/2023 at 2:15 PM #201024
      CityCreekUte
      Participant

      College refs are notoriously bad (not just PAC12 ones hehe) and they have consistently been shown to favor the home team. As opposed to the NFL where they are all well paid professionals, the pool of refs is tiny compared to all the weekend refs that college gets. Think about it, NFL about a dozen games a weekend. NCAA (FBS) around 50. The college product is tribal from start to finish and the refs are part of it.

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