CFP Ranking Theory

This topic has 13 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 1 year ago by MotherJabubu.

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- 11/08/2023 at 8:34 AM #204243
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  Ghost of the HEB
  Participant
  
  Quick Timeline:
  – Utah goes into Saturday ranked #18 in both AP and CFP.
  – In what was likely the most statistically dominating P5 vs P5 game of the season, Utah hands ASU one of their worst losses in program history (This same ASU team was coming off a W and nearly beat the #5 CFP team in Seattle two weeks earlier).
  – The two teams Utah has lost to, which are ranked ahead of us in both rankings, won their games.
  – The AP voters, recognizing the magnitude of Utah’s W and factoring in the other relevant variables, bumped Utah up 5 spots to #13.
  – The CFP committee, apparently disregarding everything mentioned above, left Utah at #18.
  So, why the discrepancy in Utah’s ranking? Here’s what I think is the simple answer: Oregon. In the relatively likely event that Oregon, Bama, and Texas all win out, the committee doesn’t want Oregon to be #4. Let’s list the implications of yesterday’s rankings:
  – Utah staying low weakens Oregon’s resume and downplays the significance of their win in RES
  – KU, OK St, and OU (all below us in AP) are now ahead of Utah in the CFP. This makes Texas look better, which makes Bama look better.
  – If we beat Washington, that will look like a worse loss for them and likely drop them out of the top 10, which will make Oregon’s loss to Washington look worse, as well as eliminate Oregon’s chance at a top 10 win.
  – If we lose to Washington, especially by multiple scores, we’re low enough to fall out of the rankings altogether, which further hurts Oregon’s chances as a one-loss #4.
  
  Bottom Line: The committee does not want a non-undefeated Pac-12 team in the CFP. And now that the general consensus is Oregon will beat Washington in a rematch, they are setting up their justification for putting in a Bama or Texas over them.
- 11/08/2023 at 8:51 AM #204244
  
  RustyShackleford
  Participant
  
  Who is on the panel this year? They suck
  - 11/08/2023 at 8:56 AM #204245
    
    Ghost of the HEB
    Participant
    
    Harlan is, but clearly he doesn’t have a ton of pull.
    - 11/08/2023 at 8:58 AM #204246
      
      UtesRule
      Participant
      
      Likely he can’t comment on or persuade for his own team, would be my guess.
- 11/08/2023 at 9:25 AM #204248
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  lgt4141
  Participant
  
  The most Pac 12 thing in the last year would be for Washignton and Oregon to lose and not make the playoff.
  - 11/08/2023 at 12:58 PM #204263
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    2008 National Champ
    Participant
    
    Actually, it would be for them to both win out, then Oregon wins the rematch in the CCG giving two 12-1 teams for the committee to consider.
    
    Then the committee would deem that neither deserved to be in the playoff and promote 2 loss Alabama for the 4th spot. Because, Alabama
- 11/08/2023 at 9:56 AM #204250
  
  Jim Vanderhoof
  Participant
  
  No doubt the biased SEC and big ten have lots of tricks up their sleeve to leave us out.
- 11/08/2023 at 10:02 AM #204253
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  NorthernUte
  Participant
  
  Might be the most intelligent theory I’ve ever heard. Makes perfect sense to me as to why they’d leave Utah at 18
- 11/08/2023 at 10:28 AM #204254
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  DataUte
  Participant
  
  Yep. And with Mizzou losing, they barely move, but if we lose to UW, we’ll drop out. FSU is clearly over-rated here with one ‘top’ win (LSU) and maybe another in their CCG, but they want FSU to be back. They want Texas to be back, but at least they have Alabama, KSU, KU wins (although it fits to say, well, Alabama was still figuring out QB, so early season win doesn’t really count for Texas or against Alabama …).
  
  It should be best of Ohio St/UM/PSU, SEC winner, PAC12 winner (unless 2 loss), then Texas/FSU for the 4th spot. But let chaos come and see what the last 3 weeks brings. Can’t wait for the 12 team playoff.
- 11/08/2023 at 1:07 PM #204264
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  Yergensen
  Participant
  
  Don’t assume for a second that this manipulation will go away with the 12 team playoff. The P2+ (ND, Clemson, FSU) will be maximizing the number of teams they get in limiting B12, ACC entrants to minimum requirement.
- 11/08/2023 at 2:26 PM #204270
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  RustyShackleford
  Participant
  
  Tennessee moving up 4 spots after beating a one win UConn team is flabbergasting. They have 0 wins over ranked teams and lost to Florida. They should not be ranked ahead of us
  - 11/08/2023 at 3:12 PM #204274
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    Ghost of the HEB
    Participant
    
    Very flabbergasting, but makes complete sense when you realize they’re just building their case for one-loss Bama to jump rhe Pac-12 teams
- 11/08/2023 at 2:43 PM #204271
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  Utah
  Participant
  
  Here is what I see:
  
  – The winner of Ohio State and Michigan will make the playoffs, if both win out to the conference championship game.
  
  Because of this, if all other teams win out, the top 4 will be: the winner of Ohio St/Michigan, Florida State, Washington, Georgia.
  
  BUT, UW and Oregon are ranked 5/6. This tells me that if both teams win out and play each other in the conference championship game, it will be between the 5/6 team, one team will end the year with 0-1 losses and Michigan or Ohio State will lose, which will put the winner of the P12 title game into the playoffs.
  
  Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Penn St, and Louisville all have one loss. If any of those teams win out, they will have beaten a team ahead of them and they will be in the playoffs.
  
  And the ranking of the two loss teams is irrelevant. If they win, they will move up. If they lose, they will move down and out.
  
  I think it’s a little bit of disrespect to rank Utah 18…but at the same time I think they way we played against Oregon St and Oregon doesn’t allow for us to have a lot of respect.
  
  If we win on Saturday, we will make a big jump. Up to 12 or 13 or higher if another one loss team loses.
  
  We have close to zero shot at the playoffs.
  
  But what this ranking did do, was guarantee a spot in the playoffs for the PAC-12 as long as UW or Oregon wins out.
- 11/08/2023 at 6:54 PM #204282
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  MotherJabubu
  Participant
  
  I think they are terrified of the possibility of Oregon and UW both having 1 loss against each other.
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