One thing to keep in mind is a lot of these high 3* kids Utah has been after, as well as getting commitments from, still have their Sr year of High School to play and will likely see a ratings bump up to 4* status.
Your point still stands that even as a low 4* (or high 3* if he doesn’t get a ratings bump to 4*) Afalava might still find himself behind a number of players at a blueblood school like Oklahoma. And so there’s still that realistic possibility he ends up in the portal in a year. But just pointing out that a lot of these kids won’t end up rated where they’re currently at but will see a nice ratings bump.