From the Athletic:
This is the hardest team to project in all of college football. Quarterback Cameron Rising has been awesome for Utah throughout his career when healthy, but injuries have capped the potential of what this team can achieve. He missed all of 2023 recovering from a knee injury suffered in the previous season’s Rose Bowl, and this year he has missed two full games with a finger injury. Since 2022, Rising has an expected points added (EPA) per dropback average of 0.39. The next best quarterback for Utah in that time period with at least 100 pass attempts is Bryson Barnes at 0.09 (he’s now at Utah State). Current backup quarterback Issac Wilson has posted a -0.02 EPA/dropback, per TruMedia. Rising is one of the most valuable quarterbacks in college football compared to the alternatives.
Utah actually won its first game without him at Oklahoma State, but it stumbled to a 23-10 loss to Arizona at home on Saturday. Its Playoff chances fell from 58 percent (42 percent to win the Big 12) to 34 percent (27 percent chance to win the Big 12). It still has the best conference championship odds in the Big 12, which is why it’s the No. 4 seed in my model’s projected bracket, but Rising’s status going forward will determine whether those odds will hold up.
The uncertainty of the past few weeks — he’s been rumored to play each of the last two weeks but hasn’t — paired with the loss to Arizona gives me little optimism for the Utes long-term. If Rising is in the lineup, Utah is the best team in the Big 12. Without him, it might not be in the top five.
Iowa State @ 
Utah 
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