Utah/TDS betting line

This topic has 2 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 3 months ago by shakeitsugaree.

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- 09/05/2017 at 10:54 AM #39642
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  Onlyu
  Participant
  
  I’m always been facinated by the numbers so I watch them in depth weekly…two weeks ago BYU was a 3 point favorite. Home field typically provides a 3 point add. So a toss up on a neutral field which most of us could probably accept with a new offense and significant roster turnover coming in.
  
  Last night the line was down to BYU -1.5, This morning it was down to -1 and it just flipped to Utah -2. A 3 point swing in 2 hours…Wow. Big money (professional money) coming in on the Utes.
  
  Granted the way they’ve looked so far influences that number significantly but 5 point swings are very rare in my experience without a significant injury and I believe it will go higher to -4 or possibly even 4.5/5 by game time.
  
  Vegas insiders are not always right but they are more often than not and I’ve been scratching my head for a few weeks wondering what I was missing with this number.
  
  I know we’re better than they are but that early number had me nervous because if they don’t get us this year it’s not gonna happen for a while.
- 09/05/2017 at 12:38 PM #39659
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  shakeitsugaree
  Participant
  
  I think they were just trying to generate action on the line – if they opened with Utah giving points, there wouldn’t have been that big push you saw to move the line in Utah’s favor.
  
  Vegas almost always gets it wrong with the Utes, IMHO, because of a multitude of factors. First, Utah (in the past – hopefully this is changing) will never cover a big spread – regardless if it’s in our favor or not. We just don’t play blowout games, in either direction. So, I’ve made money taking Utah and the points, but learned to steer clear of giving 10 or more points to anyone, the most recent cover on the ND game, notwithstanding. Second, Utah is not a traditional football powerhouse, plays out west, and is not ‘flashy’ in its game plan (again, maybe this is changing?) – all of which means Utah garners very little attention from anyone not directly affected by the outcome of the games, e.g., only fans of the Pac12 or people who live in/have ties to the state of Utah really pay any attention to Utah football. Finally, a very large subset (majority?) of Utah fans do not gamble. So, the only way for oddsmakers to generate traffic on a Utah/BYU line is to make betting so enticing (getting points with Utah? Yes, please) that even the casual bettor will want in on the action.
  
  My two cents, FWIW
  - 09/05/2017 at 7:34 PM #39750
    
    shakeitsugaree
    Participant
    
    I just noticed a huge typo/error in my post
    
    I meant to say that Utah typically doesn’t cover a large spread in its favor (giving 10+ points), but almost always covers a large spread as an underdog (getting 10+ points).
    
    I make this clear in my discussion, but I was ambiguous in my wording at the beginning of my post.
    
    TLDR, take Utah and the points – or take Utah and give fewer than 10 points – and you’ll be fine.
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