Two opposing perspectives on Utah – From Stanford fans

I don’t know what you consider respect. Two of three posters who have ranked the Pac 12 teams ranked them first. Another ranked them second. And Mick claimed Stanford could beat them.

But if you want some lack of respect, I guess it’s up to me.
I am not yet sold on Utah as the class of the Pac 12, though I certainly could see them winning the conference. There are a few issues.

First, everyone keeps talking about their rugged defense. In this very thread, winflop says, “but I also wonder if they’ve [Stanford] faced a defense as good as Utah’s – or if they will the rest of the season.”
Well, Utah’s defense is ranked 67th in yds allowed per game (6th in conference), and 74th in yds/play (9th). Their calling cards last year were sacks and tackles for loss. Currently they are in a multiple tie for 47th in sacks/game (6th) and 109th in tackles for loss/game (tie 10th). This compares to last year when they were 1st (1st) and 6th (1st).
Their defense is not bad, but so far it’s not as good as last year.

Another stat that is generally believed to be fairly predictive is yards gained differential – with per play useful for taking out pace of play. In the Pac 12 right now we have:
Team Off yds/play Def yds/play Differential
U$C 7.45 5.04 2.41
Stanford 6.72 4.78 1.94
UCLA 6.11 4.78 1.33
UW 5.59 4.44 1.15
Arizona 6.70 5.59 1.11
c.a.l. 6.62 5.55 1.07
Oregon 6.71 5.84 0.87
ASU 5.72 5.24 0.48
Colorado 5.59 5.45 0.14
Utah 5.57 5.63 -0.06
OSU 4.71 5.67 -0.96

Observations:

1. It’s really quite remakrable to be 5-0 and have a negative yds/play differential. In thinking about what other undefeated team might have such a stat, I thought of MSU – but no they are at +0.36; Florida – +1.20; Clemson – +1.47.
I think their special teams are good, but they don’t really stand out in most categories (though they are #3 in the country in punt return yards/game).
They have done this primarily through turnover margin. They are #1 in the country and #1 in the conference by a mile at +2.0 per game (second is c.a.l. at +0.83/game).
Is that sustainable?

My comment was related to the comment by the OP, “D is overrated and O is underwhelming”

Well… I applaud you for your well reasoned post… but

Utah has beaten two teams who would otherwise be unbeaten, Low APR U and Michigan. That counts for a lot.

Secondly, some of the yards per play differential is driven by run/pass choice. Utah is outgaining its opponents by 4.87 to 4.22 on the ground. In the air, they are being outgained 6.8 to 6.7 per play, but because the Utes run a larger proportion of their plays than opponents, when the stats are combined it doesn’t look as favorable for Utah. If you look at pass rating instead of ypp, then Utah looks better off (136 versus 119).

If you look at the advanced stats, Utah is 13th in S&P. They are 23rd in offensive S&P and 24th in defensive S&P, and they have the 12th ranked strength of schedule (to be fair, S&P has Stanford [#10] and Under Stanford Control [#6] ranked ahead of them). They are ranked #1 by ESPN’s power rankings, #26 on offensive efficiency and #19 on defensive efficiency. I haven’t even talked about their turnover margin because I do believe turnovers are largely due to luck, but Utah has had a profound advantage in turnovers (tied for best in the country).

Third, Utah is ranked third in punting at 48 yards per punt (and 33rd in punt returns given up). They are sixth in punt returns at 26 yards per return. They are 23rd in kickoff returns. The only portion of special teams where they are weak is in kickoffs and preventing kickoff returns. Add to it their turnover margin and Utah has had a profound field position advantage that has made the “whole” greater than the sum of its parts.

My point is that conventional statistics (yards per play) underrate Utah’s offensive and defensive, and exclude the contribution of special teams. They may not be the best team in the country (and may prove not to be in the Pac-12), but they are clearly not the second worst team in the conference.

BC

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