So how worried am I about this game against TDS?

NOT VERY!!!!!! Caution this will be a stat lovers dream, or in my case number facts. I didn’t bother to do regressions, correlations, etc. Just a quick avg, biggest difference and overall avg.

First I’ll go with records since KW and BM became head coaches.
Utah is 6-3 head to head. Margins of victory for Utah 44, 24, 10, 7, 3, and 1. TDS margins of victory 7, 3, 2. In other words TDS hasn’t beaten Utah by more than one score since BM took over, on the other hand Utah has one victory by 2 scores, one victory by 3 scores (3TDs and 3 2pt conversions, more likely four scores) then the whopper 44 pts. (which I’ll leave at 7 scores since nobody would go for 6 2pt converstions).

2005 – (7-5) Average PF/Avg PA Utah Pts/TDS pts
29 PF – 23.18 PA/ Utah 41 TDS 31

2006 – (8-5)
27.67 PF – 18.75 PA/ Utah 31 TDS 33 (John Beck Sr. QB/Brett Ratliff)

2007 – (9-4)
27.58 PF – 16.83 PA / Utah 10 TDS 17 (Max Hall /Brian Johnson)

2008 – (13-0)
38 PF – 16.67 PA / Utah 48 TDS 24 (Brian Johnson Sr.)

2009 – (10-3)
30.42 PF – 19.75 PA / Utah 23 TDS 26 (Max Hall SR)

2010 – (10-3)
34.5 PF – 20.67 PA / Utah 17 TDS 16

2011 – (8-5)
22.58 PF – 21.09 PA / Utah 54 TDS 10

2012 – (5-7)
26.91 PF – 25.45 PA / Utah 24 TDS 21

2013 – (5-7)
30 PF – 29.26 PA / Utah 20 TDS 13

2014 – (8-4)
33.92 PF – 27 PA

2015 – (9-3) (TW Sr. QB… see a pattern?)
30.25 PF – 21.83 PA

So in the KW/BM era two of BYU’s three wins were with a Sr. QB. Only one of Utah six victories came with a Sr. QB.
The average score of those 9 games Utah – 29.78 TDS 21.22 so a solid two scores.

If you look at the avg. PF and PA they were within about a point for the first three years we were in the Pac12. But last year we were up to almost 7 points between the two, and this year we’re up to about 8.5. This isn’t the Utah team BYU has played against in the past. We are much better and this should be a 10-20 point win depending on how disrespected the Utes feel.

Sadly this game will probably get out of control early and I’d love to see it get ugly fast. With a Sr. QB I’d love to see this be a 24 or more point victory for Utah.