Everybody needs to pause, and remember what the recruiting stars mean.

This topic has 12 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 10 months ago by FtheY.

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- 01/08/2019 at 11:26 AM #87823
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  Utesbyfive
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  A kid’s recruiting rank, i.e. stars, is basically a measure of how ready they are to compete at the college level. A five-star recruit may be ready to have significant productive playing time almost immediately. A four star recruit is close to that level.
  
  That frosh Lawrence from Clemson is a five star recruit, with a .9999 recruiting grade on 247, and he proved his readiness last night.
  
  I’m sorry to say that Shelley was a three star recruit with a .8518 composite score on 247. He proved that he needs more seasoning to perform at that high a level.
  
  So with that said, there are huge differences between a ***** frosh, and a *** star frosh, and we saw those this bowl season.
  
  Stars have very little bearing once a player becomes an upperclassman. Either they’ve developed, or they haven’t.
- 01/08/2019 at 11:46 AM #87824
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  Faulty logic example. 5 star Lawrence will not need to “develop” to be monster in college and NFL, the talent is on full display. 3 star Shelley will need to develop with no certainty he will get better.
  - 01/08/2019 at 11:58 AM #87825
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    Anfernee
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    Pace, you wouldn’t know. Go comment on the star rankings of the Forged in Fire characters.
- 01/08/2019 at 12:06 PM #87826
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  Dwight89
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  Your premise is incredibly deeply flawed, my friend. As a %, more five star players make it to the NFL then 4*, 3*, and so on. More 4* layers make it to the NFL than 3*, 2* and so on. If your premise were true than you would see an even % of players in the NFL regardless of recruiting stars.
  
  Star rankings are not just about a player’s “readiness”. They are a combination of readiness, talent, size, potential, and accomplishments on the field in HS.
  - 01/08/2019 at 1:09 PM #87828
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    GreatNorthernUte
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    Nailed it.
    
    To this Ill add one thing: good coaching can develop more players to an elite level on average, and bad coaching can develop fewer on average. But coaching doesnt take a bunch of 3-stars and turn them all into 5-star talent on a sustained basis. Period.
    
    One of the annoying side effects of the 2008 Sugar Bowl season has been to make a certain number of Ute fans believe that middling recruiting can somehow turn into constant 10-win P5 seasons if we just close our eyes and hope.
    
    Sure it can happen every once in a while with good coaching (see WSU this year). But it doesnt happen consistently. Thats because raw talent ultimately matters a lot when competing at high levels.
    - 01/08/2019 at 1:26 PM #87829
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      Dwight89
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      This is exactly right, and this is exactly the point I was trying to get across in a post last week that was not well received. Fact is, coaching matters and recruiting matters. Having just one will take you only so far. If we are going to compete at the highest level we have to recruit better. Otherwise we need to be satisfied with seasons like 2018, 2015, etc where we win a good chunk of cames but fall short.
      - 01/08/2019 at 1:37 PM #87831
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    - 01/08/2019 at 2:41 PM #87834
      
      Puget Ute
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      Bad coaching can take it the other direction. USC and UCLA took 75 5* and 4* players and turned them into 2*s.
    - 01/08/2019 at 6:41 PM #87888
      
      FtheY
      Participant
      
      I think you also have to factor in time. Let’s compare Cody Barton and Jaylon Johnson for a minute. I know, I know, different position, but it will illustrate my point.
      
      Let’s all agree that JJ and CB had pretty good years this year and remained healthy.
      
      I love CB and he embodies Utah football as a program. He was serviceable as a player the first 2.5 years, turned the corner the back half of last season and had a strong senior year. Now he’s gone.
      
      JJ came in as a 4* guy, started immediately, and is our lock down corner. We have him, at that level of production, for 3 years. Let’s assume he’s NFL bound for his 4th.
      
      Mathematically, we get JJs level of production for twice the amount of time (3 years vs. 1.5 years from CB).
      
      On the average, better recruits increase the likelihood of getting am impact player for longer.
      
      Extra time turns into continuity, reps, increased competition in practice, leadership, etc.
      
      There are 3* guys like Covey that are impact players, immediately no doubt. But we can’t bank on that year in and year out.
      
      The point is that coaching and recruiting both matter. But if you expect to coach up lesser recruits ALL the time, you’re already chasing your tail in terms of time. Same goes for Juco guys.
      
      Lastly, I think Whitt has built this program over the years fighting that uphill battle. Now we need some of these bigger recruits to sign to turn the corner as a program. The solve there is to win games.
  - 01/08/2019 at 2:50 PM #87836
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    Utesbyfive
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    Not deeply flawed. As I said, the lower star players either develop, or not. Utah should obviously strive for 5* recruits, but more than one or two every class… it’s not going to happen any time soon.
    
    I agree, with you about size, speed, talent, skills, but the readiness factor that informs the * rating does take physical skills and raw talent into account. Therefore my premise is not as flawed as you’d like to think.
    - 01/08/2019 at 3:06 PM #87840
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      Strive for one or two 5 stars in every class? hmmm ok.
      - 01/08/2019 at 3:07 PM #87841
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        Utesbyfive
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        I didn’t say that. I said we should strive for such players but to expect more is unlikely at this time.
- 01/08/2019 at 2:15 PM #87833
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  sweetgrass
  Participant
  
  Here are Utah’s 19 current NFL’ers and their recruiting rankings (per 247)
  
  Name Stars Ranking
  Brian Allen 2 0.7698
  Issac Asiata 3 0.8659
  Zane Beadles 2 0.7222
  Tony Bergstrom 3 0.8556
  Garet Bolles 4 0.9428
  Devonte Booker 3 0.8473
  Kylie Fitts 4 0.9587
  Dominique Hatfield 3 0.8354
  Star Lotulelei 3 0.8556
  Jared Norris 3 0.8584
  Tim Patrick 2 0.7752
  Eric Rowe 3 0.8665
  Derrick Shelby 2 0.7667
  Alex Smith 2 0.7667
  Pasoni Tasini 3 0.8056
  Pita Taumoepenu 2 0.7667
  Sam Tevi 3 0.8584
  Eric Weddle 2 0.7667
  Marcus Williams 3 0.8428
  
  Avg. 2.74 0.8277
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