So help me understand

This topic has 14 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 3 months ago by Tony (admin).

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- 08/20/2019 at 2:03 PM #99652
  
  ProudUte
  Participant
  
  I am not a gambler and do not claim to understand how lines work.
  
  Another national football writer predicted today that Utah will be the surprise final four team. We are getting a lot of national attention. Some say our defensive line is the best in the country. We are ranked 14th in the nation and we are picked to win the PAC12. On the other hand – national publications on average are predicting a 7-5 season on even 6-6 for BYU. They got NO votes in the AP poll.
  
  You would think that Utah would be at least a 14 point favorite based on everything we hear, even considering it is a road and rivalry game. So, why is it that Vegas has us as a 5 point favorite? I often hear that Vegas knows best and they have info that the public doesn’t all know.
  
  Why is Utah only a 5 point favorite? Also, it has gone down from 7. What does that say? Are people betting on BYU?
- 08/20/2019 at 2:15 PM #99655
  
  RiseasUtes
  Participant
  
  Yes, people have been betting on BYU and that’s why the line has dropped. Usually being at home gives you a 3 point advantage so if the game was played at RES the line would have started closer to 8 or 9. If history has shown anything in this game it is that the games are very close. Starting with a 6 or 7 point spread isn’t bad being on the road against a rival that we don’t usually win by more than a few points.
  - 08/20/2019 at 3:13 PM #99663
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    Central Coast Ute
    Participant
    
    If I’m not mistaken, if Utah opens 7 point favorite in Provo, then a neutral field would be 10 and home field would be 13. Someone please correct me if I wrong.
    - 08/20/2019 at 3:49 PM #99671
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      PlainsUte
      Participant
      
      But the home field advantage in this series is probably not that high. Recall the 54-10 Ute win was in Provostan. There was a period in the late 90s when the road team won every year.
      - 08/20/2019 at 3:57 PM #99673
        
        Central Coast Ute
        Participant
        
        Makes sense. So if the game were at RES it still could have opened at 7-9. It’s only about getting bets, not necessarily how the game will go.
  - 08/20/2019 at 3:41 PM #99669
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    PlainsUte
    Participant
    
    There are a lot of Mormons in Vegas and they do place bets on their favorite team.
    - 08/20/2019 at 5:16 PM #99681
      
      Warrior Ute
      Participant
      
      I was a Mormon in Vegas and the Utes were my favorite team. I don’t live in Vegas anymore.
- 08/20/2019 at 2:43 PM #99658
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  Craig
  Participant
  
  Because the line has only a slight relationship with how Vegas or anyone “in the know” thinks a game will go. Sportsbooks want the same amount of money bet on either side of the line so they are really try to set it so that fan/gamblers will bet evenly on both sides. If the money is even on both sides they keep 5% of all the money wagered as the “juice”. If you and I bet $100 each on opposite results and you win they pay you $190, (your $100 plus $90) and they keep my $100. So betting even on both sides reduces their downside. By moving the line to encourage betting to even out they usually stimulate more betting. I am tempted to bet on the Utes since I agree with you that the line is to small, therefore I put out money. As mentioned by another poster people have been betting on BYU so they move the line down to encourage more betting in Utah. So the line can be seen more as gamblers voting on the line with their money. With college games it can get especially irrational as fan/gamblers are not particularly clear minded. Overall the team with the most betting fans has the least favorable lines and does worst against the spread (USC).
  
  The lateset line indicates that even though the LDS Church discourages it lots of BYU fans are betting.
  - 08/20/2019 at 2:46 PM #99659
    
    UteBacker
    Moderator
    
    I’ll bet we see an additional 1.5-2 point swing for the Utes by the time the game rolls around…
  - 08/20/2019 at 3:52 PM #99672
    
    PlainsUte
    Participant
    
    But if things get too irrational the pros step in. So if there is movement next week with large bettors, that might be the best indication of what is to come (not that anyone really knows as this is the first game of the season).
- 08/20/2019 at 2:48 PM #99660
  2
  
  Tony (admin)
  Keymaster
  
  Lines are setup to get 50% of the money bet on each side. That’s how the house makes money. They’re not predictors of the final score.
  - 08/20/2019 at 8:36 PM #99699
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    Sweetness
    Participant
    
    I’m gonna disagree here. Yes, they are setup to try and get 50/50 on each side; however, they often end up being very accurate predictor of scores. I don’t put a ton of stock in week 1 college football lines, because at this point no one really knows anything, but in general I think they are the best way to get indication of what to expect pre-kickoff.
    - 08/20/2019 at 9:03 PM #99705
      1
      
      Tony (admin)
      Keymaster
      
      They’re not intended to be predictors, but are often very close or right on.
- 08/20/2019 at 3:17 PM #99667
  5
  
  UtMtBiker
  Participant
  
  Vegas doesn’t attempt to predict anything. They are putting a number in a place that they think will get equal bets, or near to it on both sides. They take their cut from the +/-100 numbers you see next to the spread.
  
  Basically if you bet on a team that is -110 you would have to bet $110 to win 100. Your risk is greater than your reward.
  
  If you bet on a team that is +110. You would get $110 if you bet 100. Your reward is greater than your risk.
  
  They want to get as much money in on the game as possible on both sides. Large numbers tend to scare casual betters.
- 08/20/2019 at 6:13 PM #99687
  
  AlohaUte
  Participant
  
  I’d say it’s because anything can happen in rivalry games, the games have consistently been very close, and the game is in Provo.
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