Search Results for 'sagarin'

[rbmw263]

i thought USC at least matched us physically in that game and probably outplayed us there..I think we would win the hypothetical rematch in LA, but it would probably be close. I agree we do take something out of teams with that physicality, but it takes something out of us too. That aint a 1 way street. 

November meltown is irrelevant at this point. Not that we arent in danger of dropping one of these next 3, but those meltdowns were usually a result of a lack of depth to maintain given injuries. The offense always had underlying deficiencies or weaknesses that manifested in November (while defense was the inuries and depth). Those deficiencies arent there with this team and theres definitely more depth. Theres still a few injuries we cant afford (TH/ZM/an LB) but those would come into play in Dec/Jan, not Nov.

Arizona and Colorado are the two worst teams in the p12 per sagarin. Theres some Tuscon late in the season ptsd there, but those should be wins even if the “worst case scenario” comes into play. UCLA will probably be a 2TD underdog, but they are putting it together. Thats a losable game if we dont put a decent+ game together

[Tony (admin)]

Type sagarin in the search box: https://www.utehub.com/forums/search/sagarin/

[rbmw263]

but s&p, Sagarin, and Vegas all give us about a 4 point edge. Utah is 16 spots higher in massey composite. So, essentially, their argument was math based while using the OUTLIER as evidence.. just….lol

[PlainsUte]

I am not a betting guy, but if I were, I would put some $$ on USC this week.  4.5 seems low.  Another objective system Sagarin thinks USC is 15 points better than TDS.  So even with the 2.25 home field advantage the expected marginl is still better than 12 pts and you’d only be giving 4.5 pts, that’s like getting a free touchdown.

[Gary Sapp]

I realize this is about as serious as the preseason rankings, but it something else to discuss.

Sagarin has us at 22nd with an 81.15 value. He has our first opponent at 69.59 and even with the home field advantage bonus that gives us a projected 9+ point win.

Not suggesting you go out and put any M&M on this, but just one more indication that the Cougarboard people may be a tad delusional.

[PlainsUte]

I am a fan of Sagarin Predictor (SP); it has a pretty good track record if you want to predict the winner of Team A vs Team B.   If you look at the Pac-12 in SP the rankings are:
Oregon 43 83.11
Wash    48 82.43
Ariz St. 51 81.92
Ariz      56 80.74  (bubble)
Colo     67 79.67  (out)

That said, SP didn’t seem to do a good job predicting Pac-12 order of finish. Sadly these suggest that any Pac-12 team that gets in won’t survive the first game, certainly no Pac-12 team will make it to the Sweet 16.

In NET, that the NCAA Committee is supposedly relying on, they are currently ranked

Wash   40
Oregon 61 (bubble)
Ariz St 67 (out)
Colo  69
Ariz   94

NET is clearing killing the Pac-12; the Pac-12 better figure out NET for scheduling and do well in Nov and Dec; getting hot in Feb-Mar is not what it used to be.

[shakeitsugaree]

Happy Holidays! And by holidays, I mean bowl season – the most wonderful tiiiiiime of the yeeeeeear!

Utah landed a spot in the Holiday Bowl this year, following a first-ever outright Pac12 South Championship. This was the finish predicted at the beginning of the year by advanced metrics: see here and here, so that’s kinda neat.

But it wouldn’t be a shakeitsugaree post without a graph of some sort, so I charted Utah’s Pac12 wins, by year, since joining the conference:

The trendline tells the story here – despite the low R-squared value (wins by year is kind of a volatile thing, especially over a small sample size), the trend is definitely positive. I like our chances to repeat in the South next year!!

So, on to the final game of the year – what does S&P+ have to say about the Utah vs. Northwestern matchup?

S&P+ ranks Utah 17, Northwestern 80; this system predicts a Utah victory by a margin of 15.5 points. So, we win pretty handily, says Bill Connelly.

I wanted to dive a little deeper into this matchup and try to predict where things might go wrong for Utah and right for Northwestern, so here are a few places where Northwestern excels:

Northwestern Overall Defense S&P+ 32
Northwestern Rushing Defense S&P+ 19

Northwestern’s defense is not to be taken lightly (Utah’s Overall Defense S&P+ ranks 22), and they defend the run well. Northwestern’s offense is another story:

Northwestern Overall Offense S&P+ 103
Northwestern Rushing Offense S&P+ 112
Northwestern Passing Offense S&P+ 85

So the defenses are probably going to dominate this game, with Utah‘s offense having a bit of an advantage, according to the numbers:

Utah Overall Offense S&P+ 43
Utah Rushing Offense S&P+ 27
Utah Passing Offense S&P+ 49

I like the ‘strength on strength’ matchup of Utah’s rushing attack vs. Northwestern’s rushing defense – it will be fun to see who wins that battle – but it looks like to me that Utah might win this game through the air (as I am typing that, I am chuckling a little bit): Northwestern Passing Defense S&P+ 75. If Shelley and the wide receiver corp can get something going through the air, I like that 15 point margin.

What do all of you think? Do these numbers make sense to you? Any score predictions?

Cheers, everyone!

*Edited to include Northwestern Passing Defense S&P+

[Hal Evans]

When was the last time our Basketball team had a Sagarin rating of 144!!!!! Come on Coach K this is beyond a joke

[shakeitsugaree]

Sagarin has us ranked 14 (no change), S&P+ has us at 12 (+3). Our performance against Colorado really upped our profile in the S&P+ system

I would like to direct your attention to the percentile performance of the offense against UW: 13. Now, the offense hadn’t really found its legs yet at that point in the season, but I would submit some other statistics about the Husky defense to consider (all numbers are S&P+ rankings):

Defense S&P+ 9
Rushing Defense S&P+ 11
Passing Deffense S&P+ 33

Some other ‘deep’ stats of interest (find definitions here)

IsoPPP 7
Marginal Explosiveness 5
Points per Scoring Opportunity 5
Rushing Marginal Efficiency 15
Passing Marginal Explosiveness 2

Bottom line: UW’s defense is good. Like, caused us to have our worst offensive performance of the year, good. The analytics are basically calling the Apple Cup a toss up – so, who are we cheering for?

On the surface, I think most Utah fans like our defense against the Husky offense – that is a better match up for the defense than Wazzu’s offense. However, given the state of our offense – 2nd string QB and RB, with limited live game experience – I like our chances against Wazzu better than UW. Here are the S&P+ stats regarding Wazzu’s defense:

Defense S&P+ 43
Rushing Defense S&P+ 81
Passing Defense S&P+ 13

I think Wazzu’s weaknesses (rushing defense) play into our strengths (rushing offense S&P+ 22) better than UW’s weaknesses (passing offense, if 33 can be considered ‘weak’).

Sagarin predicts we would lose to either of the Washington schools on a neutral field, while S&P+ predicts we lose to UW by a very small margin (0.7), but beat Wazzu by a bigger margin (1.6).

So, I’ll be cheering for Wazzu (full disclosure: I am currently a WSU graduate student). What do you think? Who are you cheering for in the Apple Cup?

[rbmw263]

Kind of interesting that Washington, wazzu and utah are 12th 13th and 14th in sag