5-7 I mean cmon

This topic has 12 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 4 months, 1 week ago by High Uintas.

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- 08/12/2024 at 4:02 PM #220099
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  CityCreekUte
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  https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/40751760/ap-top-25-reaction-2024-25-college-football-predictions
  
  How is a floor of 5-7 even remotely possible. Given the state of things if all the bad things happen at once (like last year) how does the program lose 3 more games against a much weaker schedule.
  
  Also, going undefeated is so far out of the question to not be in the ceiling?
  
  No respect!
- 08/12/2024 at 4:07 PM #220101
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  Dallas
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  Didn’t they also rank us 12th in the nation? Seems they respect us just fine.
- 08/12/2024 at 4:34 PM #220102
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  DataUte
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  Yeah, felt like last year everything went wrong and we still did ok.
- 08/12/2024 at 4:46 PM #220104
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  ProudUte
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  Yeah, we played a more difficult schedule last season and won 8 games. We did that with more injuries than we have ever had. So, I don’t get the 5-7 for a floor. But, it’s no big deal.
- 08/12/2024 at 4:53 PM #220105
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  AlohaUte
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  8-4 is the floor. Because last year we went 8-4 and there ain’t no way this season will be worse than that.
  
  12-0 is our ceiling. I have us going 11-1.
  - 08/12/2024 at 6:11 PM #220112
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    Utesbyfive
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    16-0!
  - 08/12/2024 at 8:52 PM #220118
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    EagleMountainUte
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    Still hard to believe Utah went 8-4. Whitt and Scalley crazy skilled.
- 08/12/2024 at 7:08 PM #220114
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  D T
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  We had 157 games lost to injury among our 2-deep last year & still managed 8 victories against a tougher schedule.
  
  5-7 is absurd & not at all based in reality.
  - 08/13/2024 at 2:14 AM #220122
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    22Ute22
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    Yeah, it’s absolutely ridiculous and shameful. Funny how they also say our ceiling is only 11-1. I would bet my entire life savings that 12-0 is more likely than 5-7. Hell, 13-0 is more likely than 5-7.
- 08/12/2024 at 8:06 PM #220115
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  Hellhound152
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  New conference, new ESPN “writer” who is a carryover. Utah has earned the AP writers respect. Utah fans have earned the Big12 press’ ire. Hence the deviation. But as Redd said at the end of Shawshank, “go ahead and stamp your form Sonnie, cause frankly I don’t give a s%^$”
- 08/12/2024 at 10:49 PM #220119
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  Central Coast Ute
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  Weird. I was listening to Scott Gerard the other day say he was speaking with someone from ESPN on the production side of things. Every year, they go through the teams and project who they think is going to make some noise. They then need to get up to speed on those teams because they plan on showcasing them throughout the year. Scotty said this guy said ESPN thinks Utah is going to the CFP and will be showcased quite a bit this year. Not sure why this guy is thinking differently than the rest of his company.
  - 08/13/2024 at 1:38 AM #220121
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    MFury
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    It’s just FPI math, not a judgement call.
    
    5-7 is a based on 20k FPI based simulations of the season. They then calculate the floor at a point where 95% of the time we do better.
    
    It’s a conservative, math and simulations based approach. Meh.
    
    Who cares what the FPI computers think unless you are going to wager on the seasons outcome.
    - 08/13/2024 at 7:40 AM #220124
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      High Uintas
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      This is why it’s 5-7. The Football Power Index has been very positive on Utah over the last 5 years, but it’s based largely on the statistical results of last season which were not very good. The current FPI has Utah ranked 27th in the country and 5th in the Big 12. With those numbers, of course the simulations are going to throw up a lot of 5-7 seasons. Don’t get hot under the collar over this. If Utah comes out of the gate hot, those FPI numbers will jump in a hurry.
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