Athlon Utah Football Game-by-Game Predictions

[Tomasina]

Another Utah write up (I find myself digging for anything I can find this time of year).  

An interesting look at game-by-game predictions

Article: Utah Football Game-by-Game Predictions for 2017

Some key quotes:

As long as Utah can intimidate with a bruising defense, the Utes will always be a tough out in the Pac-12. The schedule isn’t forgiving, but Utah has the ability to string together another season punctuated by a bowl win and a spot in the final polls.

 

Even though the Utes have only seven returning starters, don’t count out coach Kyle Whittingham’s team from finishing second in the Pac-12 South behind USC. New offensive coordinator Troy Taylor inherits a proven quarterback in Troy Williams, while a trio of talented running backs is set to compete to replace Joe Williams.

 

The Utes have to visit Seattle this year. They have to visit the Coliseum, too. And a home tilt with Stanford is never easy. (Nor, for that matter, is a trip to Eugene, Utah’s 2015 domination of the Ducks notwithstanding.) This schedule simply has too many difficult games, mostly on the road, starting with a Week 2 trip to rival BYU.

 

Breaking in a new offense will be interesting to watch but I’m still not convinced the team will see some magical progression out of the quarterback position after a decade of trying.

 

Whether it’s Arizona or Oregon on the road, or Washington State at home, Utah needs those winnable games — especially having to visit divisional favorites USC and Washington.

[Rick]

I find it odd that we have undefeated vs. Stanford since joining the PAC 12 yet it is always forecasted as a loss on almost every “expert’s” picks.  We match up with Stanford perfectly.  We are the only team in the conference that they cannot physically dominate yet we are always pick to lose.

[UteThunder]

Well, we have only played them twice since joining the Pac-12 and both times we played them we were coming off of a 5-7 season the year before.

This year appears to be a rebuilding year for us, so it is understandable that Stanford would be picked over us again.

[Rick]

How is this a rebuilding year with a senior QB and one of the best front seven on defense in the country?  I think you are a bit over skeptical.  I have trust in Kyle and Company.

[UteThunder]

We had 8 players drafted and a total of 15 players go to the NFL from last year’s team. 

We’re replacing 4 of 5 starters on the OL. Replacing our leading rusher who carried the team. Replacing 2 of our top 3 WR, including our leading WR. On defense we are replacing both corners and a safety in the secondary, and our DL lost some of its best players. We return less than half our starters on both sides of the ball. And we are replacing our kicker.

On top of all that, we brought in a new OC and a new RB coach and we will be installing a new offense this year.

How can this year not be considered a rebuilding year?

[Utah]

SR QB, basically return all skill position players, top 5 DL nationally, one of the best safeties in the country, one of the best LB groups in the PAC-12, best punter in the country, one of the best coaches. 

As Dennis Dodd said yesterday, “Utah is approaching Stanford territory where you just pencil them in for 9+ wins a year.”

i think we only win 7-8, but there is a pattern emerging. 

[Utah]

I don’t think our problem is talent. We may be more talented than last year. 

Our problem is the schedule. That thing is awful. 

[UteThunder]

What is your definition of a skill position player? I consider it to be QB, RB, WR, TE, DB, K, and P. I already mentioned all that we lost in that regard, but I guess you need a little more detail.

RB – We lose Joe Williams, our leading rusher from last year. The other major contributors from last year, Shyne and Moss, are both coming off injury.

WR – We lose Patrick and Butler-Byrd, 2 of our top 3 WR. We also lose Tyrone Smith to the defense.

TE – We lose Moeai, our leading receiving TE from last year.

K – Automatic Andy is gone.

DB – We lose Hatfield, Porter, Allen, Thomas, and Williams to graduation/NFL and Fogal transferred. 

How can you say we basically return all of our skill position players? If anything, we basically lost all of our skill position players. We might be “approaching Stanford territory” but I don’t think we are there yet.

 

[Rick]

What ever we lost in DEs we replace with equally or more talented players.  DL is as good as ever and LBs are heavily improved with added depth.  I know we lost a lot in defensive backfield but I have seen their replacements and they are as good or better IMO.  We are really not losing much in WRs IMO.  By the end of the year our best receivers were the ones we have back this year.  QB and RB are solid, not worried there at all and I have faith in our OL coach and our talent there.  Our kicking game in both phases will be solid.  The schedule is hard but we have 5 home conference games, 7 homes in total.  

[UteThunder]

On our WRs, other than Singleton, I disagree. Looking at our last 5 games our leading receivers were:

Guys we are losing

Patrick: 21 rec. for 282 yds

Butler-Byrd: 12 rec. for 109 yds

J. Williams: 5 rec. for 105 yds

Moeai: 8 rec. for 112 yds

Guys we have coming back

Simpkins: 8 rec. for 85 yds

Fulks: 1 rec. for 36 yds

Wilson: 4 rec. for 79 yds

*Singleton: 8 rec. for 157 yds

Handley: 6 rec. for 79 yds

There are others who had receptions, but their totals were so low I didn’t think it was worth mentioning.

*Singleton had one HUGE game against ASU with 117 yds, but was basically invisible in the other 4 games. 

If all of the newcomers are as good as you think, then I guess our situation would qualify as a reload instead of a rebuild. But right now, we have a lot of unproven newcomers and guys who were backups last year mixing in with very few returning starters on both sides of the ball. It’s a rebuild until proven otherwise. 

[ladyinred]

Hold on, weren’t you just saying yesterday, in defense of tds, that backups are never going to have the same numbers as the #1’s because they simply get less minutes/carries? Why not extend the benefit of the doubt to our own team? Just sayin. 

[UteThunder]

Different context. Rick said the receivers we have coming back were better in the last few games of last season than the guys we are losing were. The statistics in the last 5 games prove that isn’t really true.

ETA: The discussion of BYU players was regarding the claim that they had “zero talent” at RB which I was pointing out isn’t true. This is different because nobody is saying Utah has zero talent at WR, but for anyone to claim the guys returning outperformed the guys that left is absurd.

[noneyadb]

Is this UtahUteDave from BlockU?

[UteThunder]

I have no idea who that is.

[ladyinred]

good old utahutedave. I actually wish he would come on here. He is hilarious in a dark, depressing way.

[Tony (admin)]

If he’s not a troll extend him an invite!

[Utah]

Our WR’s are better than anything TDS has. We have talent there. The cupboard isn’t bare. 

The thing to remember is that 2017’s class came into Utah in 2013/2014.

The recruits we have gotten since then are exponentially better raw talent wise. This won’t be the case forever, but right now and into the next 4 years, the kids that come after the current kids should all be more talented.

Yes, we lost a ton last year. BUT, we have a lot coming back as well.  

[noneyadb]

Last 5 games consisted of Washington, UCLA, and Colorado. All three had some of the Nations best DB’s and Utah had an injured first year starting D1 QB. This year is a reload with more talented players. Shariff Shah glowed about how this secondary is wayyy more physical and talented compared to last.

[UteThunder]

UCLA was not one of our last 5 games. Our last 5 games were Indiana, Colorado, Oregon, ASU, and Washington.

[noneyadb]

😂 Indiana allowed 219yds/game. Ucla 210… 

[UteThunder]

Yep, in the run heavy B1G.

Let me put that 219 passing yds/game into perspective for you since you clearly have no clue.

Indiana’s pass defense was ranked 12th in the 14 team B1G . . . TWELFTH!!!

Passing Offenses in the B1G? Total crap.

6 of their teams threw for an average of 179 yds/game or LESS with the worst passing offense averaging 138 passing yds/game! The next best 4 teams threw for an average of 222 yds/game or LESS. And not a single offense in the B1G averaged over 300 yards/game with the best being Purdue at 295.

The Pac-12, by comparison had the top 8 teams average between 362.5 passing yds/game and 245.5 passing yds/game.

Indiana’s pass defense also benefited from playing Wake Forest(165 passing yds/game), and a couple of BAD G5 teams in Ball State and FIU. Those two teams play in two of the worst conferences in the country and only averaged 225 passing yds/game.

But Indiana’s pass defense is right there with UCLA’s . . . laughing emoji, indeed.

 

 

 

[noneyadb]

Damn- look who’s secondary is ranked top ten.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2717573-ranking-the-best-secondaries-for-the-2017-college-football-season

[UteThunder]

A bleacher report top 10 that includes TROY at #7 and Georgia State and Appalachian State as honorable mentions? That’s what you’re going with?

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!

Did you even read their selection criteria? It’s simply number of returning starters and how they ranked nationally last year in 5 statistical categories. No weight given to the strength of the opponents they faced or how good those passing offenses were, whatsoever. In other words, you could play the 12 worst passing offenses in the country and as long as you held them even remotely close to their averages, your secondary would be in this top 10. What a joke.
 

 

 

[Sweetness]

UteThunder has some valid concerns, but a couple things he is missing that I think are important and why I’m not real worried about the skill positions we are losing.

Cornerbacks: Despite having one of the top DLs in the country and two all conference safeties, we finished 8th in the conference in pass defense. Truth of the matter is that our corners way underperformed last year. Reggie had a decent year, but Allen, Hatfield, and Thomas were all very average. Allen got drafted because of measurables and potential, not film. Domo played on an injured knee (you’ll remember he missed the 1st 3 games of the season with a sprained knee) and just didn’t look himself. I have no idea what happened to Justin Thomas who really fell flat after having a great Jr. year. It is a question mark, and that is scary, but if there is a drop in performance I don’t think it will be very dramatic.

Receivers: Tim Patrick and CBB basically played in like 6 games each last year. They missed games to injury and Tim was very hobbled in a few of the games he did play in. Simpkins and Wilson showed a lot of promise as freshman. We brought in two 4 star receivers in Tyquez Hampton and Bryan Thompson. Possibly getting Darren Carrington into the program and brought in a Juco player in Devontae Vickers who has promise. Also, people forget Alec Dana redshirted last after coming off of a knee injury. Singleton was just a sophomore and still has a lot of untapped potential. The receivers improved a lot in year 1 under Holliday and I think you can expect them to take another step forward this year. Also, CBB was an ass. Wasn’t practicing and was obviously suspended for the bowl game. Receivers will be as good or better than last year. Add in a senior qb and Troy Taylor and you’ve got to think the passing game will be better this year.

RBs: I don’t think we see a joe williams esque performance here. Remember though that Moss sat out most of fall camp injured with shin splints and battled injury all year. He was just a true freshman. With a full offseason in the strength and conditioning program he’ll take a step forward for sure. I don’t know what to think of Shyne coming of his knee injury, but he was looking solid as well. Henry Cole looked solid in the spring game and we are bringing in a 4 star running back from Arizona. I don’t see an all conference back next year, but we’re not going to all of the sudden be washington state. There’s talent there.

TE: Evan Moeai’s grow on trees in the Pac12. He was our 3rd string tight end to start the year and Fakailoatonga went down and Handley battled injuries. With Handley and Siale TE position will be on par or better than last year.

OL: This is really the only Oh $&*% concern we have. Jackson Barton needs to step up in a big way, and someone else has to emerge as a solid tackle. I think we’ll be fine on the interior, but the tackles could be scary. The redeeming hope we have is that Eastern Washington replaced 4 OL last year in troy taylor’s first year there as well and they turned out all right. When you watch his offense it’s a lot of quick passes. But that was FCS and this is the P12. If we drop to a 5-6 win team this year, it’s going to be because of the OL, not the skill positions. I’m legitimately worried about the OL.

D-Line will be deeper and have a better starting 4 than last year. LB will be greatly improved, Safeties will be very good (not as good as last year, but not much worse), and QB/Passing game ought to be quite a bit better as well. If OL can be average to above average I have no hesitation saying we will be 7-8 win team (schedule is brutal this year so I have a hard time seeing anything beyond that), but we will beat up on the arizonas, go 3-0 in non conference, and get at least 2 or 3 of the UCLA, WSU, Col, Ore, and Stanford games.

[Utah]

Great post. 

One thing I just want to step up on my soapbox and say, is this:

Marcus Williams was great. 

Chase Hansen is the #1 returning Safety in coverage returning this year. 

Chase is just as great. We all put Marcus up on this pedestal and don’t give Chase the same due. He is a fantastic safety and, while his skills are different than Marcus’, he is every bit as good. 

Ballard is incredible as well. Watching him in spring…for someone just new in the program…wow. 

Finally, Fogal was our #3 Safety last year. He just transferred because he fell out of the top 6 safeties. 

Our safeties will be much better overall this year. Don’t be surprised to see 4 safeties on the field at once:

Hansen and Blair up in the box, Afia and Ballard in coverage. We are loaded at safety. 

[Author]

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