Baylor backslide

[BUBearsFan]

I was here a bit before the season started but had a family emergency and disappeared. After last week I should probably stay gone. I watched your game against Florida. Nice win while missing a few key players. I suffered through 90% of the Baylor game until I turned it off to go to bed at 5 AM my time.

Some last week observations.

GJ Kinne, Texas State coach, was hired in 2022 and took 53 transfers (2nd most after Colorado) including the Auburn/LSU QB who will play on Sunday along with his magician of a receiver. Other transfers were from places like OU, Baylor, etc. The loss is awful. But is Texas State a Portal Miracle? He obviously picked the right mix of talent and coached/motivated them like a very good coach would. Kinne’s dad played linebacker and coached at Baylor. It would be shocking if he’s not on a short list at Baylor.

Baylor failed to use the portal in 2022 and were the youngest team in the Big 12. After the BYU game, Aranda said the team was young and inexperienced and he could see the whites in kids eyes. He at least used the portal a little this year but after the Texas State game, he said the team was young and inexperienced. There’s no excuse for that. Teams can now be overhauled in an off-season with the portal and Colorado and Texas State are the examples of that so far. Notably, the 2 BYU transfers (brothers) to Baylor didn’t look good and were overshadowed by 2 others that were worse. Even if you use the portal, you have to get the right talent.

Aranda is a low energy, quiet guy. He was hired because he was a great DC on the LSU National Champ team and had a good reputation. He won in 2021 with Rhule’s recruits. We live in a world where people rarely question the message but instead repeat what they are told. The more people say it, the more it’s true. Aranda is a great coach. He is a great defensive mind. He knows how to turn things around.He’s this. He’s that. He’s on short lists across the country. But no one hired him. Now he’s on a 5 game slide and he’s not short on resources ($$, facilities, etc). He had a culture issue in 2022 and said so himself. He put stronger rules in place which contributed to 2 players getting kicked off the team before the season started. 1 was the #1 player on defense. The other was a starting running back of the big and fast variety. Was the culture issue really fixed? The first time I saw real emotion on Aranda’s face last week was around the 3:51 mark in the 4th. That’s him. Maybe you don’t need to be vocal and emotional if you’re winning. But if you’re not, you better be in the game. This alone infuriated alot of fans. I have a feeling that the team has taken on his soft understated style. They aren’t killer bears anymore. They have been transformed into soft teddy bears. It’s HOT in Waco. There’s rumor that there was a Board meeting after the game and the AD would be doing 1:1 meetings with the coaches. Don’t know if this is true but the AD made it public that the results were unacceptable and the past 2 days (following the game) weren’t any fun. I think Aranda has 6 years left on his contract. Not good is things continue to go South. You’ve heard enough of this.

What went right last week?

– In one rating, Blake Shapen was the 3rd highest rated QB in the country, even with zero protection which got him hurt. He was 21-31 with 303 passing yards (416 total passing yards). I don’t know how with all the penetration.

– Baylor has good talent in skill positions but it’s impossible to see that in a game where the OL is so terrible. A couple receivers including the Miami transfer looked good.

– The OSU transfer running back looked good considering he earned every inch with no help.

What went wrong?

– Everything.

– 8-9 false starts including inside the 5 yrd line. How can this even happen?

– Sawyer fumble and Int which really should have been caught.

– Both lines were dominated. I even found myself trying to look more closely at the tv to see if the DL were as small as they looked while they were being absolutely blown off the ball. I’m not joking. I was squinting at the tv.

How can Baylor win?

– Cut the penalties by 90%.

– No turnovers.

– Sometimes you aren’t as bad or good as you look. I think Texas State could have beat Florida last week. I really do. Do any of you? I expect the answer is probably No. Utah would win that game.

– Can Baylor play any worse? Is that even possible? The OL has to play 25% better. 50% for the DL. There’s no other way to characterize this.

– Sawyer Robertson will be the QB. He was a Mike Leach guy who transferred from Miss State. His high school coach says he’s one of the best players in the country and he won in high school without an OL. He says people overlook his athleticism and speed (22 mph at 6’4″ 220) and he doesn’t know why. He better be all his coach says and more. He has to throw for 300 yards. His wheels and arm better be a good enough threat to open up the run.

– Baylor has to average 5 yards a carry (3.4 last week) and I imagine most will be on Sawyer is a save your _ _ _ mode. The 2022 Big 12 Freshman of the year (RB) saw few runs last week because of the penetration. This has to change.

– Utah cannot be better than last week. It has to be a let down game. They have to turn the ball over a few times. The kicker has to miss a field goal.

– Baylor offense better be on the field long enough and the sun hot enough to wear the Utah DL down.

Prediction

– If I was a gambler and could even bet against my own team, I would have taken the 4 points on the open. This should have been the ripest pick of the week.

– Current line is 7.5. What does Vegas see?

– My brain says Baylor has no chance in hell.

– My heart gives a 15% chance because the team has to be so embarrassed that they show up, they can only be better, and maybe Utah has a let down.

– My head says Utah by 24. My heart says Utah by 10.

[ProudUte]

Great post. I enjoyed reading your insights.

I watched Baylor play BYU last season and was stunned at how unemotional your coach was.

Utah will be playing without as many as 8-10 key players due to injuries. If Utah was healthy, I would expect Utah to win by double digits. But …

[BUBearsFan]

We lost a few important ones too but things are already too bad to think about that.

[Miles E.]

We most likely will be missing our QB1, QB2, RB1, RB2 & TE1. Utes may not have the horses on offense to score a lot of points. This will put a lot of pressure on our defense in 100 degree weather. I see a low scoring affair that could go either way. Go Utes!!

[BUBearsFan]

Was QB2 the starter against Florida? Did RB1 or 2 play against Florida? I know the TE was out. I’m happy he still is. We need all the help you can give us.

[MFury]

Florida starter was QB3. RB2 played against Florida, injured outside of practice this week, unconfirmed but broadly reported.

[alUmnUs]

Do I think Texas State could have beaten Florida last week?

Here’s the thing. Billy Napier and Jeff Grimes are similar in that in order to win, their offenses need to be able to run the ball really well.

It’s not that way with Utah. Utah wins when teams don’t run the ball well, and Utah only gave up 13 rushing yards and really just made things not fun for Mertz en route to 5 sacks and a pick. On the Utah side, I think we’re all a little iffy about the offense, but expect more of the same from the defense regardless of which players are healthy to go. And Utah fans don’t think Utah has any business losing to a Jeff Grimes offense.

I don’t think Texas State could have gone into the Swamp and won. I know they wouldn’t have held Florida to 13 yards on the ground.

[BUBearsFan]

I really do think Texas State would have beaten Florida. They may have done it a little differently but I think they would have. But we’ll know more about this in 10 minutes. If Baylor gets shredded, then Baylor really is just terrible. It’s possible.

[ukiyoronin]

If Baylors Oline plays like they did last week, it’ll be hard for this Baylor QB to get anything done. That being said, I don’t think anybody is counting Baylor out. Utahs offense is out a lot of players. So anything can happen.

[Central Coast Ute]

Two weeks ago I was very worried about this game. After last week I feel a little better but am not overly confident. As has been stated, the Utes are dealing with a ton of key injuries. Plus they’re playing a talented team on the road who may feel like their backs are up against the wall. Plus, with only one game, you never really know what you’re going to get. If it were week 5 or 6, and this has been the result all along, I’d feel better.

[Tony (admin)]

Thanks for stopping by and definitely keep posting. We are missing SO many starters… It could be ugly on both sides. Hoping for the best.

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