Big 12 Insider talks Utah

[bopahull]

[krindor]

The reality is that Utah is more likely to win the conference than any other team… but that doesn’t mean Utah is more likely to win than not win.

If you’re looking at Vegas odds, Utah has the best… but turning those into implied probability gives

1. Utah 22.7% (+340)
2. Kansas St 21.7% (+360)
3. Kansas 13.3% (+650)
4. Arizona 11.7% (+750)
5. Texas Tech 10.5% (+850)
6. UCF 8.3% (+1100)
7. Iowa St 7.7% (+1200)
8. Oklahoma St 5.9% (+1600)
9. TCU 5.9% (+1600)
10. West Virginia 5% (+1900)
11. Colorado 2.4% (+4000)
12. Baylor 1.8% (+5500)
13. Cincinnati 1.5% (+6500)
14. Arizona St 0.99% (+10000)
15. BYU 0.76% (+13000)
16. Houston 0.76% (+13000)

And that’s just the implied odds… which gives a total percentage chance of 120%, meaning you’d have to scale each probability down to account for the buffer that Vegas is giving. Doing that gives the following probabilities

1. Utah: 18.8%
2. Kansas St: 17.9%
3. Kansas: 11.0%
4. Arizona: 9.7%
5. Texas Tech: 8.7%
6. UCF: 6.9%
7. Iowa St: 6.4%
8. Oklahoma St: 4.9%
9. TCU: 4.9%
10. West Virginia: 4.1%
11. Colorado: 2.0%
12. Baylor: 1.5%
13. Cincinnati: 1.2%
14. Arizona St: 0.8%
15. BYU: 0.6%
16. Houston: 0.6%

So… is Utah the favorite? Yes, slightly over K-State. But should the expectation be that Utah will win the conference? Not really; 20% odds is better than anyone else, but the field has much better odds than Utah

[UtesRule]

I’m surprised OK State is that low. Will be shocked if they are not in the mix.

Iowa State is my sleeper pick to finish top 2 (behind Utah).

[ProudUte]

I support a Utah – KState championship game. They do not play in the regular season, so it could be a fun game. It would be very fun if both were undefeated. However, I doubt the likelihood of that happening.

[krindor]

Absolutely insane to have them that low. Makes no sense. They were good and bring most everyone back, so should absolutely be a threat

[MDUte]

In Sheriff Whitt I trust!!

[Author]

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