BigTen commissioner Kevin Warren said they may not be done with expansion…

[PhiladelphiaUte]

…but the only Pac-12 schools being mentioned now are UWa, Ore, Stan, and Cal.  Which is all the more reason why the Pac-12 will need to raid the Big 12 in order to survive.  

By the looks of things, all the premier Pac-12 and Big 12 teams will inevitably wind up in the same conference anyway, so it makes more sense to induce them to join us rather than the other way around.  If we wind up having to join the Big 12, we’ll be stuck in a league with far-flung institutions such as Cincy, WVU, and UCF…

…AND our whiney, prima donna princess little sister down south.  And who wants that?

But if WE raid THEM, we’ll just be stuck with Wazzu, Ore St, and Ariz.  Which is MUCH better!

We don’t even have to grab all of them now.  We should just pick SDSU, Okla St, and 2 of the following three:  Tx Tech, TCU, and Bylr.  That’ll sink the Big 12, and ensure our survival.  Then if/when the BigTen and/or SEC comes along and plucks any Pac-12 teams not-named Utah, we can just go back and scoop up the best of what was left of the Big 12 and/or ACC.

If we DON’T raid the Big 12, they WILL inevitably raid us, and we’ll be stuck with ybU-p, Cincy, WVU, and UCF.

[tarheelio]

I would like it better adding Texas Tech, OKST, Kansas & Kansas State. But I am sure all of them have BIG10 dreams.

Raiding conservative schools to join anything connected to California may be difficult in our current climate. (SDSU)

[Charlie]

I would prefer taking a few of the best from the Big 12 over going to the Big 12. However, if it is true that Washington and Oregon and/or others have asked for extra shares, I prefer going to the Big 12 as option two over riding out the Pac. Oregon and Washington will be a problem for us unless we go with them to the BIG where there is adult supervision, or unless we have some Big 12 schools to help oppose their domination.

Next, I wonder how long we can wait for events we have little or no control over. If the Pac is not very active in pulling in a few Big 12 schools with a likelihood of success, Utah should be open and consider the Big 12. As Pac-10 or with adding two G5 schools and also waiting for the BIG to move, we would be in an awful spot. Long term, only one of the Pac and Big 12 will remain a power conference with at least 4 schools picked from the other.

[PhiladelphiaUte]

I agree with you that it’s better to join the Big 12 than to allow the PacNW schools to gouge the rest of the league with demands of unequal revenue sharing.  But with equal revenue shares, we’re better off in the expanded Pac-X.

FWIW, I’m not sure what leverage those PacNW schools really have.  I get that they’re the bigger brands, but what are they gonna do if the other schools say “no”?  Go independent?  It’s not like they’re saying, “If you guys don’t give us more money, we’re leaving to join the BigTen.”  They’re saying, “Give us more money until the BigTen invites us.”  And it’s not like they can say, “If you don’t give us more money, we won’t sign the new GoR”, because that hurts them too.  And if the 4 corner schools leave for the Big 12, that hurts them too, as the Pac-12 can’t sustain any more losses.  We’re barely sustainable at “10”.

[UrbanLiar]

I doubt the State of Washington would allow a preferred revenue return for UW at the expense of Washington State. Same doubt applies between the Ducks and Beavs. They’re all state universities.

[UteThunder]

If it keeps Washington State and Oregon State in a P5/P4 conference, I’m sure their respective governments would be just fine giving Washington and Oregon a bigger revenue share. That’s certainly better for them than dropping into the MWC.

[oc_ute]

@Philly Ute.  100% agree but do you think anyone will commit until they know that UO and UW are staying?  also dependent on what ND does.  my guess is they stay independent, UO, UW are then invited to the b1g and we (and the PAC) are SCREWED.  the first domino has to fall.  i see no way around the PAC NOT sucking hind tit.  the only ace in the hole is if the PAC can negotiate a TV deal that appeases UO, UW and has an option for the inclusion of XYZ from the big12 if they can get XYZ.  i’m skeptical.

[PhiladelphiaUte]

I DO think that we could get Big 12 teams to commit, even with UW and UO publicly angling for a super conference invitation.  And I’d already explained why, but I’ll try to simplify it here…

1.  In 2016, the Big 12 looked at ybU-p, Hou, UCF, and Cincy for expansion, but ultimately declined because they didn’t add value.  And they still don’t.

2.  In 2021, after Tex and Okla announced their defection to the SEC, the Big 12 drops down to 8 teams with no real national brand.  So they panic and add a quartet of midmajors who don’t really add value — just to survive.

3.  If the TX and OK schools join the Pac-12, the only thing that’ll change for them is that they will no longer have to play in a conference that’s been watered down by a bunch of midmajors.

4.  A 10-14 team P5 league, consisting of 10-14 P5 teams looks better from a TV DMA standpoint, than a 12-16 team league consisting of 25-33% midmajors.  And especially when of those 4 midmajors…

(a) Cincy doesn’t even command their own DMA.  Cincinnati is an “Ohio St” town, and also has to share with UKy and L’ville.

(b) UCF doesn’t even command their own DMA.  Orlando is still a Fla town, with very large contingencies of Fla St and Miami.  UCF is 4th at best.

(c) Hou doesn’t even command their own DMA.  Houston is primarily an “Aggie” town, with Tex, LSU, and Tx Tech ahead of the cougars in Bayou City.

(d) Contrary to zoobie claims, ybU-p doesn’t even command their own DMA.  They may be #1 in “Utah County”, but in the Salt Lake City DMA, and the state as a whole, polls and statistics have long called this state for the Utes.

And if you’re wondering if Stan and Cal would accept schools like Tx Tech or Okla St, the answer is….they’d looked at them already.  Back in 2011.  And back in ’11, neither were Tier-1 Research institutions.  Tech was “close”, but State was not.  Now BOTH are Tier-1.  The real question is will they allow SDSU to join.  They’re still Tier-2.

As for UO and UW, they don’t necessarily have us over a barrel.  They can try demanding higher shares if they allow us to invite some Big 12 schools, but we can still threaten that if we’re going to be playing these guys anyway, we can just join them for “equal” shares.  This means that it benefits all Pac-X members to work together as “equal” partners, because the “nuclear” option hurts everyone — but especially the PacNW schools who would then lose most of what was left of their “leverage” and get next to nothing.

[Central Coast Ute]

If ND doesn’t join the BIG, they won’t be inviting UO or UW. They ND to offset the loss those two schools will bring to the individual schools.

[Trailgoat]

ND would be foolish contractually joining the B1G. Fox has everyone glossy eyed with all the big money push. Beyond money, I have yet to hear any talk of a coherent conference plan that benefits ND better than they have it. There is still a ton of unforeseen risk in play as Fox and ESPN march forward alienating 70%-80% of college programs and their fan base. Kliavkoff needs to change the paradigm with some big hitters outside of the current media monopoly group who are hell bent on killing the majority of college football programs outside of their exclusive group. A lot of arrogant assumption the 90-100 programs and their fan base left out are going to follow the sheep and watch the same 4-6 schools play for the national championship every year.

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