Can the PAC ruin everything for the Big12? Is it true that the AAC teams have

[tarheelio]

already paid that exit fee and theoretically could just jump over to a new conference with no penalty? I am not even saying that we would want them, but if we took Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston, the Big 12 would be in a bad spot. It would add teams from 3 recruiting hotbeds, and a lot of eyeballs on TV’s. We could round it out with San Diego State and leave the Big 12 hoping that they can get Memphis and Boise.

[RedRocks]

While those markets may be large, I don’t think those schools/teams make much sense for the PAC-12 from a travel perspective.  They also are not the primary teams in their respective markets.

[AlohaUte]

Honestly, San Diego State is probably the #1 most valuable option the Pac-12 has. Getting back into Southern California in a city that now ONLY has Baseball as a major competitive draw and a new (though small) stadium I think will help the Pac-12 the most overall. I also like the idea going around about going out and adding SMU and like the idea of trying to steal Houston from the Big-12.

But if we are going to stealing from the Big-12, I think adding Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State, and Texas Tech may be the real value. Even though ISU seems irrelevant, they draw big attendance numbers and don’t do too bad with TV. Kansas is AAU and has basketball excellence, Oklahoma State is the #1 brand in the current Big-12, and Texas Tech has a solid following and is investing something 200 million into its FB program.

[UteThunder]

I’m pretty sure they have signed contracts with the BigXII and would face huge financial penalties if they were to bail on their new conference before even joining. Then again, TCU announced they were going to the Big East before switching course to the BigXII. Maybe the Big East falling apart made it easier for them to switch without penalty?

If the Pac-12 is going to expand, they have three pools to choose from.

1) Current BigXII teams like Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas, Iowa State, etc. 

2) G5 teams like SDSU, BSU, CSU, etc. 

3) ACC teams looking to avoid being left behind by the inevitable departures of Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, and Virginia. ACC teams would be more likely to look at joining the BigXII due to geography.

Number 1 is the best option, number 2 is the most realistic option, but as far as Utah is concerned, our best option is probably joining the BigXII. The Pac-12 is DOA if we can’t poach some teams from the BigXII.

[Central Coast Ute]

The current big 12 schools are only signed until 2025. The new big 12 schools are not signed yet.

[Utesbyfive]

I disagree, and to support my point, see today’s articles from Canzano and Stuart Mandel.

[Central Coast Ute]

Great articles. The only people saying the big 12 is stronger is local big 12 media. For some reason, Ute fans are buying into it. The latest rumors I’ve heard from the big 12 are now AZ, CU Sanford and Cal lmao. Theu something everyday and they’re Lways imminent, later today etc. Nothing ever happens. People just need to chill out and see what happens before they believe these rumors.

[dystopiamembrane]

I am saying the Big 12 is stronger.

[Charlie]

I disagree. The Big 12 has a slight edge over the Pac 12 with Texas and Oklahoma. After loosing those two and the Pac 12 loosing USC and UCLA, the Big 12 has lost their edge clearly. Their best program, Baylor, is around 3 or 4 if in the Pac and they have several that are new to this level. There is no reason to expect the next 4 programs to move up to make the leap any faster than Utah and TCU that took half a decade to be competitive (these are lower draft picks). I also feel SDSU will assimilate up as quickly as those new programs in the Big 12, they missed mightily on this one.

As to the first question, if either the Big 12 or the PAC take a couple of the best teams from the other, that conference will give the other a huge problem.

[dystopiamembrane]

5 Oklahoma State

6 Cincinnati

7 Baylor

15 Utah

21 Houston

27 BYU

28 Iowa State

30 Oregon

31 Kansas State

46 Texas Tech

49 Arizona State

52 Central Florida

55 West Virginia

59 Oregon State

60 Washington State

72 Texas Christian

83 California

88 Washington

95 Colorado

99 Stanford

108 Kansas

117 Arizona

Massey composite

[dystopiamembrane]

For those who down-voted this post, is the colour palette not discernible on your screen? I could choose two other colours, if that would be helpful.

[Charlie]

This is not a value index, it is an index from last years records with teams playing very different schedules. Try to imagine how this will shuffle in the next couple of years. The new teams going to the Big 12 will not at all hold onto these spots with schedule change, as an example.

[dystopiamembrane]

Ranking systems are the only indices that matter to me. The other things that y’all are talking about are above my pay grade. I am a college sports fan, not a business exec.

None of us know how things will turn out in the future. All we have is now.

[UteThunder]

Have any links? I would like to read them.

[Utesbyfive]

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-delusion-aside-the-big-12

He references the Mandel article which is behind a paywall at the Athletic.

[Charlie]

You must factor in that a school does not necessary own the market they are in. As an example, Houston is a top market clearly, however, this market is owned first by Texas, second TA/M, third LSU. You certainty would not just assume Rice also own the Houston market. Note that LSU is not even in the same state. Others like ND have most their market out of state. Look for where they stand in their market and adjust the market by that percent.

I think the PAC would do well to invite Baylor, OSU, TT and SDSU. This minimizes coast to coast travel, keeps us in socal, and adds Texas/Oklahoma into the mix. I think we can not do better than that.

[PhiladelphiaUte]

I agree Charlie!  Hopefully, the Pac-12 doesn’t become short-sighted enough to just “follow the money”.  I believe that by adding Bylr, Okla St, Tx Tech, and SDSU, it won’t raise our per-team payouts.  In fact, it’ll likely lower them due to the quartet not being accretive enough to sustain the pie being divided 14 ways, rather than just 10.  But adding them is absolutely the right thing to do.  Everybody knows that UWa and Ore are looking to hop the first train out of the PacNW to the BigTen and/or the SEC, and should either of those super-leagues opt to expand further, the Huskies and Ducks (and possibly even the Cardinal) will be the first teams to go.  And what then?  The Pac-12 flounders.  Adding those 4 Big 12 teams will ensure that if/when that day comes, we’ll STILL be the strongest league, with the ability to add the next best teams at will, because by adding them, the Big 12 flounders.  And they will NOT be able to backfil the absences of those teams without having to comb through more midmajor leagues.  And you can’t build a “power” league by adding “midmajors”.

[Author]

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