CFP Committee sets the narrative straight about the PAC 12

[MDUte]

I think we’ve all heard so many times from media sources and others that the PAC 12 is the weakest of the P5 conferences. Although this might be the narrative they want everyone to believe, fortunately, this is not determined by the media. The CFP Committee is the only voice that counts. And isn’t it interesting to see how the CFP Committee views the landscape of CFB? Based on the 1st CFP ranking, here is the true pecking order according to the CFP Committee:
1) SEC
2) B1G
3) PAC 12
4) Big 12
5) ACC

I don’t think it comes as any surprise that the CFP has the top ACC team, Wake Forest, bringing up the rear at #9. But just as a reminder, the national media (AP poll) came out with their ranking prior to the CFP rankings and they had Cincinatti #2, Oklahoma #4, and Oregon #7. But did the Committee feel the same way?…not even close. 1st of all, get the G5 team out of there…Cinci beat a good team in Notre Dame but you can’t be a Top 4 team based on 1 upset. Next, get Oklahoma out of there…yes, they’re undefeated but they probably shouldn’t be with the way they’ve squeaked by inferior opponents such as Kansas.

So regardless of the AP putting Oklahoma at #2 in Week 7 and #4 in Week 8, the CFP moved them all the way down to #8. Contrast that to Oregon. The AP had Oregon at #10 in Week 7 and #7 in Week 8. And Oregon has a loss….not only does Oregon have a loss, it’s a bad loss to a Stanford team that is the 3rd worst in the PAC 12. On the positive side, not only does Oregon have a signature win against Ohio St on the road at the Horseshoe, they’ve beaten 4/5 Conference teams and a good Fresno St. team.

So how does the CFP view a 1 loss PAC 12 team vs an undefeated Big 12 team?…CFP puts Oregon in the Playoff group at #4 and moves Oklahoma all the way down to #8! That says it all…if the narrative in the media was really true about the PAC 12, there’s NO WAY a 1 loss Oregon team would be ranked ahead of an undefeated, blue blood Oklahoma team. And certainly not 4 spots ahead! Some might say that Oregon is also a blue blood, brand name program. Although Oregon’s brand is really good, it is nowhere near the level of Oklahoma with their long established rich history and 7 national championships. Oregon has 0 National Championships and has really only been a national brand for the past 15 years.  

Regardless of what some might say, the CFP Committee has clearly communicated the pecking order in CFB. Nobody disputes the SEC being the top dogs with the B1G trying to keep pace at #2. But the PAC 12 is regarded as the 3rd best conference in America by the CFP, which is the only Committee that matters. And just when you might be thinking it’s just 1 year and 1 data point, go back to 2019 and you’ll see the same evidence. There again the CFP spoke loud and clear when they had Oregon and Utah ranked ahead of Oklahoma and Baylor coming down the home stretch. And even when Oregon lost, the CFP still kept Utah ahead of Oklahoma & Baylor right up to the end before we lost the CCG. There was no doubt that Utah and the PAC 12 was getting in over the Big 12 if all things were equal, meaning both teams finishing with only 1 loss. 

Despite the fact that this will most likely be 1 more year where the PAC 12, yet again, doesn’t get a team into the 4 team playoff. Make no mistake, the respect shown to the conference by the CFP committee is undeniable. And this is all happening with the conference’s flag bearer, USC, being down for awhile now. Imagine what happens when USC finally rises back up to power…the PAC will be competing with the B1G for which conference is the 2nd best in the country. 

[PlainsUte]

I guess they’re saying Oregon has a signature win (Ohio State on the road) while a team like Oklahoma has had some close games against weak teams like Kansas.   Not sure how they say a close win vs KU is worse than actually losing to Stanford.  Oklahoma beat Texas at a “neutral” site but had to come from behind to get probably their best win so far.   Looking ahead OU has opportunities to get a signature win, so if Oklahoma can beat Baylor and Oklahoma State, especially if done in a convincing fashion they’ll be moving up fast.  Meanwhile if Oregon loses to Utah they will probably plummit to 10 or so.   I guess I am saying the CFP is not necessarily a referendum on the various leagues, at least not until the season is played out.

[MDUte]

I disagree, it’s absolutely a referendum on leagues. AP Poll had Oklahoma #2 and Oregon #10….why? Because Oklahoma is undefeated, they have a signature win coming against rival Texas, and the media continues to play up this narrative that the PAC is the weakest P5 which places more weight to the Big 12’s conference schedule.

The CFP, on the other hand, actually is responsible for analyzing all of the games and comes to the conclusion that a 1 loss Oregon with a Signature win against Ohio St and a bad loss against one of the worst teams in the conference is still more impressive than an undefeated team from the Big 12. Outside of the signature win comparison, the CFP Committee is then weighing the teams’ conference schedule. This is what drives Cinci out of the conversation, and rightfully so, because they don’t have 5 wins against P5 opponents to go along with their upset of Notre Dame. The comparison then comes down to Oregon’s PAC wins vs Oklahoma’s Big 12 wins and determines Oregon is the better team. Oregon has had close battles against PAC opponents such as Cal and UCLA. But the Committee views wins such as these more favorably than Oklahoma beating Kansas and West Virginia, suggesting that the PAC has a more competitive league. Otherwise, the CFP would more closely resemble the AP poll. 

And of course Oregon will plummet if they lose, giving them their 2nd loss. Any team, including Alabama, would drop out of the Top echelon if they picked up their 2nd loss. But with where the standings are today, all things being equal, if both Oregon and Oklahoma won out…Oklahoma would climb because they have more room at #8 to move up but no matter how far they went up the rankings they would still find themselves behind Oregon. 

This is no different than in 2019 when Utah, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Baylor all had 9-1 records. The committee had both Pac 12 teams higher than the Big 12 teams with identical records. Just because Oklahoma ultimately got in does not mean the committee placed a higher value on Oklahoma over either Utah or Oregon. It just means that both Oregon and Utah ended up losing their 2nd loss which dropped them out of the race, whereas Oklahoma ended up winning out. The point is the media (AP Poll) favors the Big 12 & ACC over the PAC. The CFP Committee has shown they favor the PAC over the Big 12 & ACC. And ultimately, the AP doesn’t matter anymore…the CFP is the only ranking that matters. 

[krindor]

Honestly, I don’t think that’s as much a ranking of PAC12 over Big 12 and ACC as it is an acknowledgement of the monumental gap between the SEC/Big10 and the rest of the P5 conferences.

Oregon has a victory over a good Ohio St team from a top (i.e. SEC or Big 10) conference which is what propels them, not anything for or against the PAC12. 

I guess it does say that the PAC12 is in roughly the same tier as the Big12 and ACC, but I don’t think it means the committee puts us over them.

[MDUte]

Sorry but the data doesn’t agree with you. The AP poll consistently ranks the Big 12 teams like Oklahoma higher than PAC 12. But the CFP consistently does the opposite. If both teams were undefeated then you could make the argument that Oregon has the better win over Ohio St as being the reason why they are #4 and Oklahoma is #8. But that win was at the first of the season and since that time Oregon has lost to a bad Stanford team. Regardless of the fact that Oklahoma hasn’t looked great in many of their games, they are undefeated against their P5 Big 12 schedule, which includes their rivalry game win over Texas. But the CFP still ranks undefeated Oklahoma 4 spots below a 1 loss Oregon. And as further evidence, the 2019 CFP had identical records between Utah Oregon Oklahoma and Baylor, all at 9-1. And the CFP ranked both the PAC 12 teams ahead of the Big 12 teams. And after Oregon lost and Utah and Oklahoma moved to 10-1, the CFP remained consistent ranking Utah ahead of Oklahoma.

I realize you’re also a BYU fan and see that you post on CB as well as on here. So I guess these facts crush the narrative that Cougar fans want to believe that the PAC 12 is a terrible conference and BYU is joining a better conference in the Big 12. But the reality is it’s the other way around. And the Big 12 only gets weaker with its 2 flagship programs, Texas and Oklahoma, leaving to join the SEC.

[Duhwayne]

We need another p12 win in the rose bowl. Just keep adding ooc wins. There were a couple good ones and a lot of bad losses this year. As to cfp committee I think we like the outcome this week but honestly I’d rather have a record that a secret committee can’t screw up. They’ve dogged the p12 a lot the last five years.

[MDUte]

How have they dogged the PAC 12? The top PAC 12 teams the past 5 years have missed their opportunity by losing 2 or more games. What the conference needs is a champion to finish the season with 1 or fewer losses which has been difficult given our 9 game conference schedule creating an additional 6 losses each year (higher chance of upsets) within the conference.

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