Chance to make the playoffs went up

This topic has 7 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 1 month, 4 weeks ago by jshame17.

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- 09/22/2024 at 1:04 AM #224669
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  UTE98
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  According to the Allstate playoff predictor
  
  Ok St went down from 21% chance to make playoffs to 10% chance
  Utah went up from 15% to 29%
  Michigan went up from 6% to 13%
  USC down from 37% to 21%
  
  Tennessee went way up to 78% from 71%, so you’re saying there’s no bias?
  
  And what is up with UCF? On the ESPN PFI for games, they are favored to win every game. And many of those are in the 70-80% probability. That is the only game Utah is predicted to lose.
- 09/22/2024 at 6:43 AM #224685
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  belli1976
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  I am curious to see if Mizzou drops in the ranks after squeaking by Vandy.
  
  If USC stays higher than us, that would be absurd.
  - 09/22/2024 at 8:46 AM #224699
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    DataUte
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    On Massey, we are favored to win every remaining game (57% v UCF)
  - 09/22/2024 at 9:44 AM #224716
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    jshame17
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    Why?
    
    If we played USC right now, we lose by 17+.
    
    We haven’t shown enough on offense and outside play of Bernard, we haven’t shown consistent running game like Michigan to wear them down.
    - 09/22/2024 at 10:08 AM #224723
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      The Miami Ute
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      Yeah, I don’t know about that. Miller Moss, as shown this season, is no Caleb Williams and I think that Utah’s defense would feast on his lack of elusiveness. If a healthy Rising played that game, I’d give Utah better than a puncher’s chance. At this point in history, Utah is living rent free in Lincoln Riley’s mind.
      - 09/22/2024 at 10:39 AM #224741
        
        jshame17
        Participant
        
        But Rising isn’t playing until who knows when. You have to look at the team on the field each week, and not cherry pick what you want.
        
        It’s Miller Moss vs Issac Wilson.
        
        Bernard played out of his mind and carried this team yesterday, but looked beat down at times. Can he do that against USC? Who knows.
        
        The team that walked out on the field yesterday, USC beats going away. Hate to say it but it’s the truth.
- 09/22/2024 at 9:49 AM #224718
  
  UtesRule
  Participant
  
  OK St was around a 69% chance of beating Utah according to ESPN’s metrics before yesterday’s game.
  - 09/22/2024 at 10:00 AM #224720
    
    2008 National Champ
    Participant
    
    Those metrics are still using last year’s results. The % goes down every week but never completely goes away.
    
    Both teams were roughly similar in returning production (slight edge to OSU) and overall talent (slight edge to Utah). OSU got a bump for home field, Utah having to change time zones and last year’s record. I don’t know if there is a factor for key players being out unless they are announced as done for the year.
    
    If the schedule called for Utah to travel again to Stillwater for a game this week, even after yesterday’s result, FPI would still have OSU as the favourite.
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