Chaos. Wake and Michigan State go down.

[Utesbyfive]

I just have this weird feeling that by the end of the season, and championship games, there may be no undefeateds left.

[SalUteopia]

Love to see it. Moaaaaaaar chaos!!

[fosternano]

The only undefeated left should be Georgia. They have an FCS schedule left for the season until the SEC championship game.

[MDUte]

Did you all see the finish to the Cinci Tulsa game? Cinci might be undefeated but they have no business being in the Top 10 let alone talked about as a potential playoff team.

[Central Coast Ute]

Yep. And I think we can all say Tulsas QB lost that game.

[MDUte]

Tulsa is terrible and Cinci gave up 300 yards rushing to them. Cinci would get boat raced by any of the Top teams in the mix for the playoff.

[Utesbyfive]

I think Bama beats them. Then of course it will be Bama 1, Georgia 2, Big10 champ (if it’s Ohio State,) 3, and Oregon if they win out.

[2008 National Champ]

Oklahoma or Oklahoma State probably gets in over Oregon with one loss.

Oregon would have the Ohio State win and 2 over 8-5 Utah at that point. Whoever comes out of the Big 12 will have at least one win over the other “Oklahoma” as well as Baylor and Iowa State. Also have better losses than Oregon has with Stanford who might finish 4-8.

Speaking of Stanford, I thought it would have been easy money to take the over this year but it is looking like Vegas will have it right at 4 wins for them.

[MDUte]

I don’t think so. Oklahoma will get in because Oregon isn’t going to win out. If Oregon were to win out, they’d get in over Oklahoma. Oklahoma will certainly climb if they win out but they wouldn’t leap frog Oregon if Oregon won out.

[2008 National Champ]

remaining schedules and current record:

Oregon – UW (4-4), WSU (5-4), Utah (6-3), Oregon State (5-3). Best win to date = Ohio State (8-1). Loss = Stanford (3-6)

Oklahoma – Baylor (7-2), Iowa State (5-3), Oklahoma State (8-1). Best win to date = Kansas State (6-3). Loss = none.

It is not even close on who has more to gain over the rest of the season. Quite frankly, Oregon should hope that Utah loses two of the next 3 and Arizona State wins out so they can beat a 9-3 team in the CCG instead of Utah twice.

Even if Oklahoma loses one of their next 3 and then wins their cCG, they will have at least 3 (potentially 4) ranked wins against Oregon’s 1 (2 if they play 9-3 ASU in the CCG) and will have a much better loss.

I believe that Utah will be ranked this week. All of this is assuming Oregon ends up 12-1 after the CCG so it remains to be seen if an 8-5 Utah would be ranked. I don’t think a 7-5 Utah would so that is why I am giving Oklahoma the advantage on ranked opponents at the end of the season. A 13-0 Oklahoma makes the whole conversation moot.

[MDUte]

I understand what you’re saying but I still don’t agree. The CFP clearly views the SEC powerhouse teams of Georgia and Alabama as well as the B1G’s powerhouse team of Ohio St as the elite of CFB with a big gap between them and all the rest. Therefore, Oregon’s 1 win over Ohio St, on the road at the Horseshoe, and in convincing fashion, trumps Oklahoma going undefeated in the Big 12 IMO. Based on how the committee has ranked teams now and in the past, if both Oregon and Oklahoma win out…then Oklahoma would need Georgia to eliminate Bama from the playoff to allow Oklahoma to take the #4 spot. And then it would be 1) Georgia, 2) Ohio St, 3) Oregon, 4) Oklahoma.

I think Ohio St would leapfrog Oregon because even though Oregon won the head to head matchup the Committee weighs the B1G higher than the PAC and Ohio St’s conference wins of Penn St, MSU, and Michigan would trump Oregon’s wins in the PAC. But I could also see the committee putting Oregon ahead of Ohio St due to winning the head to head.

Doubtful we’ll ever know since it’s looking likely there’s plenty more chaos ahead (ie Oregon losing, Ohio St losing, Bama losing etc).

[2008 National Champ]

We are in agreement that Ohio State winning out would move them ahead of Oregon. I don’t that is in dispute in anyone’s mind. The stuff about how the committee values conferences right now isn’t part of my thinking.

You view the committee differently than I do. It appears as if you think their mandate is to decide who are the best teams and I think they should be there to decide which teams are having the best season. It didn’t matter that the ACC was viewed as a weaker P5 conference because Clemson was having great seasons. It hasn’t mattered whether the Pac was viewed as strong or not because they’ve only been able to come up with 2 one-loss teams in the last 7 years.

If Oregon is one of only 4 one-loss or better P5 teams, they will be invited. If there is a 5th team, that is when it will get dicey: Oklahoma would have a better resume as either an undefeated or with one loss. Wake as the 5th probably wouldn’t. If the 5th is Georgia by dint of losing to one loss Alabama in the CCG, I don’t think anyone knows. Wisconsin and Iowa took their only losses in CCG’s and didn’t get invited. Would the committee take a 2nd SEC team over a 1 loss Pac-12 team? At that point, I think it would come down to Oregon’s loss to Stanford as the excuse for taking Georgia.

[MDUte]

Yea I think if I’m understanding you correctly, you’re making the case for which teams would have the best resume and therefore which are the most deserving. However, the Committee’s job (right or wrong) is to select the 4 best teams. That gives the Committee a lot of leeway and enables them to, for example, select 2 1-loss SEC teams over an undefeated P5 team such as Oklahoma. Because at the end of the day, the Committee can always justify any decision they make by saying they simply saw 1 team as being better than another based on their complete analysis.

Joel Klatt provides an excellent breakdown why the current system is flawed with too much subjective power and bias being given to a 13 person committee to determine who the 4 best teams are and why there needs to be an expansion of the 4 team playoff model.

Joel Klatt – CFP Rankings

[2008 National Champ]

Thanks for the Klatt link. I watched him after the Utah game and am in full agreement with what he laid out.

Best team, deserving, eye test.,, all of these are buzzwords to take everyone’s eyes away from the truth of the matter which is that the committee is only interested in casting a television show. If a committee decided the NBA or NFL final participants it would be some combination of New York, Chicago or Los Angeles every year.

Was the NFL ruined by Green Bay (smallest TV market) winning a Super Bowl? Did San Antonio ruin the NBA? They didn’t maximize eyeballs which is different than deciding the best team in a particular season. And in my opinion, that should be decided on the field instead of by a committee with 11 of 13 voters tied to P5 conferences. I’ve said it many times but any system that eliminates half of the participants before any games have been played is broken in concept.

You, I, and everyone else are allowed to debate the value of Cincinatti or any other team to our hearts content. That drives interest in the game which keeps the money train rolling. But the committee needs to do better. And if it can’t, it needs to be scrapped for a system that includes all member schools with an equal path.

[MDUte]

Well said Champ. Hopefully the powers that be can come to an agreement on an expanded playoff model sooner than later.

[2008 National Champ]

Thank you ___ (inset proper pronoun). I enjoyed the discussion

[Central Coast Ute]

Honestly, I don’t think OSU winning out guarantees they leap frog UO. The committee seems to favor head to head match ups.
Oklahoma winning out will put them in. With all of the chaos this weekend, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them jump in the top 4 with MSU dropping out. The committee won’t put Cincy in so they need to put OK in so they can justify keeping Cincy out.

[MDUte]

I think you might be right that Bama beats Georgia in CCG and both get in just so we all have to suffer watching 2 SEC teams get in again and a probable rematch of the SEC CCG to decide the CFP winner. But I’m hoping Georgia knocks Bama out of going to the playoff.

The B1G is looking like a 3 horse race between Ohio St, Michigan, and MSU. Ohio St will probably end up winning out like they always do.

I really think we beat Oregon this year, both at RES and in Vegas. Our offense has found it’s identity and continued to play great for 5 straight games now. And our defense continues to get better each week. So I think this is another year where the PAC doesn’t get a team into the playoff. It’s too bad it took our OLine so long to gel this year, costing us the 2 OOC losses to BYU and SDSU. If we win those like normal, we’d be in the bottom of the Top 10 right now and within striking distance of the CFP. Since Oregon beat Ohio St, they would provide us the signature wins needed to make a run at the 4th spot.

Big 12 will, yet again, be represented in the CFP by Oklahoma. They have an easy road being able to still drop a game and get in.

And without Clemson, the ACC doesn’t have another team that’s even close to being good enough to sniff the CFP.

So with all that, I think the CFP will end up being: 1) Bama, 2) Georgia, 3) Ohio St, 4) Oklahoma

[Mule]

Snoozefest….

[Author]

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