I’d put my money on Gonzaga or Oregon is recent history is any indicator.
This is what is frustrating. If you are this kid, you can go to Oregon or Gonzaga, where they take transfers, develop them, and go to final fours, or you can come to Utah, where there is a good shot you will be transferring in a year.
His parents live in Vegas and he wants to be closer to them. I’d say UCLA or Arizona top the list, then Utah, all the rest in the third group. I’m basing this on appeal and geographical proximity and logistics from Vegas. Then again, he’s a kid.
UCLA might have something to say about that. Duke may be outperforming them in recent years, but UCLA had twice as many National Championships in the ’60s/’70s alone than Duke has in their entire history. Plus, they’re no slouch in the academics department.