Comparing Big 12 recruiting classes

[krindor]

We’re now in the Big 12. Which means that we most directly have to measure our recruiting against Big 12 teams, not against B1G or SEC teams or even our pre-Big 12-history (which would also have to be adjusted for inflation, but that’s a different story).

And it’s generally hard to measure that – 247 has their rankings, but frankly put way too much emphasis on class size.  And looking at average recruit rating is an improvement over that… but can hurt teams that recruit more players – there’s no way a 3 person class of 90,90,90 should be above a 4 person class of 91,91,91,86.

So the best/easiest way I’ve found to do this is to look at the recruit average for the top X players in the class.  Which I have a visualization tool here that allows us to do that.  This compares Utah’s 2025 class to every other Big 12 team’s class (as well as BYU from 2024 in their first year in conference)

(Note that this uses score above 85, just to zoom in to the actual relevant scores.  If the average recruit for a P4 school drops below 85 with all the rating inflation that has happened…well that’s a huge problem)
And this tells me a few things about Utah’s current recruiting. Note that when you’re just looking at the smallest class sizes, Utah starts near the bottom. Our top recruits aren’t on par with the rest of the conference. And that’s REALLY hard to recover from since those recruits are averaged into EVERY calculation.

But you’ll also note that as the class gets larger, Utah keeps ascending those rankings. Which is a good indication that we got a LOT more very good players than most schools (even if we didn’t get the one or two elite headliners). By comparison, look how high Kansas St starts (Linkon Cure) … And then how they fail to maintain that.

Overall, I’m pretty happy with the class, but also cognizant how much better it would look (by these metrics) if we’d managed to land a Jerome Myles, Iose Epenesa or Aaron Dunn.

And that’s tough, competing in a P2 world with USC and Oregon throwing truckfuls of money at recruits. But these numbers aren’t comparing us to Oregon or even other B1G/SEC teams. It’s comparing us to Big 12 teams with the same limitations. Like I said, very happy with the class overall, but that’s the (very difficult) area where we could stand to improve

[krindor]

Side Note: to really look at the data, I recommend NOT hitting play and instead just tapping on each # along the bottom to progress it at your own pace and see how rankings change for the depth of the class

[ThurstonW]

Thanks for putting this together. It is a fantastic analysis!

[CityCreekUte]

Very cool. I am trying to read the tea leaves and 14/15 is interesting because that’s where Colorado falls out and they are clearly the most top heavy. I’m amazed that TCU is so high and is all the way up to 24. Although their composite at 24 is over 1 point lower than at 14.

Utah is pretty disappointing to me to be honest. By the time we reach the top 5 (13) we’re at 3 while Colorado and TCU are still well above 4. And when we fall out at 20 we are still 1 lower than where TCU ends at 24.

Also interesting is that other than Houston the Texas schools as a group are so dominant. I’d never have thought TT and Baylor would be among the top 5. Which with TCU and Baylor makes me curious about their NIL pools. Especially as I think about how their cousin in SMU has basically just thrown money at being relevant.

The fact is you need a few special players to break through. Without it you will be what Utah has kind of always been. Just a solid team that by scheme plays tough games and wins more than it loses. All the times we’ve competed for championships it’s because we’ve had a few special players.

[krindor]

Yeah, the hard part is 100% getting that top talent to Utah. Add one of the three I mentioned (Myles, Epenesa or Dunn) and this class would look a LOT different by this rating. Pushing every recruit down one slot would be a game changer and have Utah right up at the top (in line with Baylor, though probably still behind Colorado and TCU who are recruiting VERY well).

And I absolutely get why that’s difficult, but it would help to occasionally play in that sort of rarified air to take the next step.

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