Does a loss against OSU virtually eliminate us from the P12 CCG race?

[SalUteopia]

OG Post:
Let me preface by saying that I’m not implying that we will lose on Friday. I’m just pondering.. so.. IF we lose against OSU, are we practically out of the P12 CCG race? Sure, theoretically speaking, we can still win out, or there could be a scenario where a 3-loss team makes it, but those chances are bleak.

And yes, I know games are not played on paper. And despite how the season plays out, I will continue to enjoy the ride. And I love KW, and our entire coaching staff. And above all, I love our players who give it their all.

So the above question is merely a thought exercise, and I’m curious to know what others think?

Edit:
Adding further clarity on my assumptions. I feel that we need to split OSU, USC, UO, UW to make it to the the P12 CCG. UO and OSU seem more winnable, although a case could be made against USC, but it’s an away game and we haven’t fared well at the Colosseum. I’m least confident about UW. OSU also has a relatively soft schedule, so owning that H2H becomes even more important. Hence my question.

[krindor]

Obviously makes it harder, but I don’t think it eliminates us at all.

Honestly I’d be mildly shocked if ANY team makes it through the PAC gauntlet without taking at least one loss. And there certainly won’t be two teams that do so, so a single loss isn’t going to end anyone. Last year we even made it with two losses (though we did need some tiebreakers to fall our way). It removes a lot of leeway, but I’d guess the CCG will be a one-loss teams matching up against a two-loss team that gets there on tiebreaker with some others with similar record.

[2008 National Champ]

No. I’ll give you a long-winded breakdown if necessary. Otherwise, NO!

[22Ute22]

No, but it’s going to depend on Cam Rising coming back after the bye week and playing like he played at the beginning of the 2022 season (Florida through USC). If Cam comes back and plays at that level, we could definitely beat USC and Oregon. I would still have us losing to UW since Husky stadium is tough and I think it’s a bad matchup for us. Our corners aren’t bad, but they aren’t going to be able to cover the 3-Headed WR monster of UW, unless they have the game of their life or our pass rush gets to Penix often. At 10-2 with wins over Oregon and USC, we’d probably make the CCG. Even if we somehow don’t make it in such a scenario, we’d be basically guaranteed to be a NY6 at-large team. Lots of ifs though. Hopefully we beat OSU. 5-0 heading into a bye week and then playing a bad Cal team at home is so much time to rest up for the true meat of the schedule. Fingers crossed, but it seems like we are going to be more healthy coming out of the bye week, than the beginning of the season, which I’m sure is quite rare.

Also, looking ahead, I wonder how much prep we do for USC during the bye week. Can’t imagine we will spend 2 weeks preparing for Cal.

[belli1976]

Umm how did we get in the P12 CCG last year??

And we loss to OSU in 2021.

[PNW Ute]

I don’t think it eliminates us, but would make it extremely hard. Would probably have to win at least 2 out of 3 against Oregon, Washington, and USC, with two of those on the road. That’s gonna be a tough ask of anyone this year. At least the top four teams all play each other this year, unlike last year when UW missed out on Utah and USC.

WSU could also be a sleeper to make the championship. They don’t play Utah or USC this year, so even with tough games at Oregon and UW, they could possibly be sitting with 2 losses too.

Damn shame the Pac 12 is finally having a year like this, and it’s the final run. Conference play is going to be absolute carnage this year, and I’m here for it. I don’t know if we’ll have the offense to win the conference this year, even if everyone gets healthy, but if we make it through with 2 or less losses it will be a hell of a year.

[Jim Vanderhoof]

I think beating OSU with the current state of our offense would be a huge victory. We are in prime position to lose. Pulling a W would be a big team effort and spring board us forward.

A loss certainly doesn’t illuminate us. Yes it could be a dagger to the CCG.

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