Early Betting Lines for 2023 Football Season

[HoosierUte]

Season Win Total
Utah 8.5
AZ 4.5
ASU 4.5
Cal 5.5
Colo 3.5
Oregon 9.5
OSU 8.5
Stan 3.5
UCLA 8.5
U$C 9.5
Wah wah 9.5
WSU 6.5

Conference Champion
USC +200
Oregon +310
Washington +430
Utah +470
It drops off quite a bit after that to Oregon St, UCLA…

Because I am a petty Ute fan here are some tds lines:
Odds to win B12: +10,000. Yes, that’s right +10,000, if you bet $10 you would win $1,000.
Win total 4.5. Being out of market I don’t follow tds at all, I had no idea things were this bad.

[Tony (admin)]

Two years ago I got Utah as conference champ at 12/1. Laid $100 on it.  Woot. 

[UteBacker]

Man, nothing jumps out at me as a value bet.  Maybe the under on Colorado.  I think TDS is about to realize the harsh reality of there being no gimmies after their first couple of games.  When the Utes got into the Pac, I had a pretty good idea that we’d struggle, but I didn’t realize how hard it is week in and week out.  It takes a few years to build up the depth to withstand the grind, and I’m not sure TDS is set up to be able to build that depth.  Time will tell.

[Hellhound152]

Apples and Oranges.  Utah entered it’s league with all 11 of the teams being established Power 5 Programs with the newest major conference teams being the Arizona’s in the 70’s.  BYU is joining a league where 1/3 of the programs are g5 programs that have to perform the same build.  The depth gradient may not be as harsh as ours.

But seeing how Cougarboard is more worried about realignment and Rose Bowl losses than their own program who gives a rip.

[UteBacker]

Amen to that.  I’ll be glad when this TV deal is done.  I’m over it (for about 5 more years until it all starts up again).

[Ute Dub]

If TDS was going into the BIG12 without Hill as DC I’d think they’d get embarrassed. I’m not saying they’ll have a winning record but I think Hill will keep them in some games. 

[D T]

Hill doesn’t have the horses to effectively implement KWhitt’s D….Zero playable depth [w/some sketchy starters sprinkled in] & this is his first time as a DC.

I don’t believe he’ll be able to mitigate the damage much, IF at all.

[Ute Dub]

I mentioned, “keep them in “some” games”. And by that I mean their defense and personnel will have more discipline in practice and be better organized around the program. Hill is very organized. The lack of discipline issues will drop under Hill and it will give them a fighting chance to have sound tackling and sound assignments. Under Kalanai and Tuiaki there were some lack of discipline issues. Grimes helped clean that up program wide, Grimes left, and they started to have wild swings in their play. Just my armchair point of view.

[D T]

None of that stuff can mitigate the vast talent-gap they’ll face, particularly once the injuries start to mount….It’s not going to go down how you envision…..Their utter lack of any playable depth will get blown up as they get into the weekly grind of 9 consecutive P5 conference games.

[Tony (admin)]

The under on Colorado is the only thing that looks tempting to me. I think it would be fun to to put a small amount on it and grab the popcorn. 

[BoiseUTE]

Yeah for sure I would put some money down on the Colorado under. I think they will only win 1 maybe 2 games. Not sure what their non-conference schedule is like but if any teams are more than snowballs I would for sure go for the under.

[2008 National Champ]

@ TCU, home against Nebraska and Colorado State in that order. They do get Stanford at home week 7 so there’s a pretty good chance at 2 wins (CSU being the other). Arizona, ASU, WSU are probably toss-ups but they won’t be favored.

Beat Stanford (new head coach) & CSU and then win two of Neb (new head coach), UA, ASU (new head coach), WSU gets you to the over. I’m not taking that bet but it wouldn’t be the strangest outcome I’ve ever seen.

[DataUte]

CU only favored against CSU. AZ and Stanford next, but the line currently would be -4 and -7 (at home). Ouch.

CU Massey Rating

[Whitty]

If I were forced to take a position on any of these totals, I think I would take the UCLA under. Feels like they lost a lot of offensive production.

[EagleMountainUte]

I would take the over on TDS. 5-6 they always get some stupid wins. Like Utah in 2021 

[Tony (admin)]

In my mind I can’t take any bet in which one “hopes” the tds wins. 

[HoosierUte]

right, this is one i just won’t touch because i can’t make myself cheer for them.

[EagleMountainUte]

I never gamble.  Even the hope of getting more money for doing nothing is lost on me. I do see your point though but I am just thinking logically they probably get to 6 wins.  

[Tony (admin)]

That’s six wins too many 

[D T]

Logically? Which six games to you believe they win, “logically”?

Don’t forget they’ll be more & more hard-pressed to win as the season goes on, as starters go down & they’re forced to replace them with low 3-star/2-star recruits.

They have two built-in wins early, then they get themselves into something they’ve never before experienced, 9 consecutive P5 conference games….I just don’t see six wins in that schedule with their total lack of playable depth.

[EagleMountainUte]

Sam Houston, SUU, Kansas, Cinn, Texas Tech, and Iowa St. 

[D T]

They lose to KU/TTU, both superior teams with superior coaching & better talent/depth.

KU isn’t the KU of old & that game’s at their place.

TTU gets the zoobs after injuries have mounted & again, superior talent/depth/coaching.

They probably get Cincy & ISU’s a toss-up….In fact, ISU is later in the year when the lack of depth factors into it, but it’s a toss-up in my mind only because it’s in Provo.

4-8 is their likely final record.

[DataUte]

I saw a projection of Texas Tech to the cotton bowl. That projection had them in a higher bowl than Texas or any other Big 12. So they are projecting to be pretty good I guess.

[krindor]

Agreed on the over there. 2 easy wins vs SUU and Sam Houston St means they only need three others.

With so much portal movement, it’s tough to predict how they’ll do, but they only need to go 3-7 against teams who’ve played a game at the FBS level

[EagleMountainUte]

TCU was in a down year in 2012 from what I remember. Managed four wins in conference and three more out of conference. 

[DataUte]

They are favored against SUU, Sam Houston, and pick ’em @ Kansas, but not favored in any other game.

Massey Ratings

[D T]

That win against us was early in the year, with them coming off playing/practicing a full season during Covid, while the rest of us had a truncated season….Huge advantage for the zoobs, particularly before injuries kicked-in that year & exposed their lack of playable depth [barely escaping a horrible USC team & losing to UAB immediately come to mind as they concluded the season injured & limping to the finish-line].

[PhiladelphiaUte]

The whYners also always wind up with some embarrassing losses too.  So it evens out.  5-wins is their ceiling in 2023.

[chinngiskhaan]

TSPP isn’t in a terrible spot program wise, they just picked a bad year to have to completely rebuild their offense (and their defense was bad last year). They might still be okay with Slovis… When I say okay I mean not absolutely awful. They’ll still probably finish in the bottom 2 or 3 teams of the conference.

[alexsmith]

If I were a betting man, I’d bet the over on Utah without a second question

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