The Pac-12 game of the year (until next week)
No. 7 USC at No. 20 Utah (8 p.m. ET, Fox)
The energy is coming back to
the college football town of Los Angeles. The Chip Kelly era at UCLA started slowly, but his Bruins have won 14 of their past 18 games and have charged to 11th in the AP poll. At USC, Lincoln Riley didn’t need nearly as long. The first-year head coach has led the Trojans to a 6-0 start with an offense full of transplants and a defense that relied a little too heavily on turnovers early on but is rounding into disruptive form, especially up front.
Now comes what looked at the beginning of the season to be USC’s first particularly stiff test. Utah has disappointed a bit — a sleeper CFP contender at the beginning of the season, the Utes dropped road games at Florida and UCLA — but they’ve exceeded SP+ projections by an average of 12 points per game at home. Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the hardest places in the country to play, and while the Trojans handled a lightly attended road trip to Stanford just fine, they only barely survived a hostile environment at Oregon State with their unbeaten record intact.
Utah seems particularly well equipped to exploit what has been USC’s biggest weakness to date: run defense. The Trojans rank a dismal 108th in rushing success rate allowed, and while the Utes lack explosiveness — something that cost them in both road losses — they’re 18th in rushing success rate. Backs
Tavion Thomas,
Jaylon Glover and
Micah Bernard keep quarterback
Cam Rising on schedule.
Utah also seems poised to fend off USC’s biggest defensive strength. Without blitzing, USC ranks seventh in FBS in sack rate thanks to the work of
Tuli Tuipulotu (seven sacks) & Co. But what Utah lacks in explosiveness, it makes up for with sharp, quick passing. Rising is completing 69% of his throws, and his receivers have dropped just five passes all season. If the Utes can fend off pressure with steady pitches and catches, they will both control field position and score quite a few points.
USC’s offense can score, too, however. Quarterback
Caleb Williams and the Trojans are sixth in both points and yards per drive; they stay on schedule (14th in success rate) and rarely move backward or go three-and-out. Utah’s pass defense is among the best USC has faced, and the Utes’ pass rush could start to put some hits on Williams, who is a master of drifting out of the pocket, buying time and waiting for receivers to get open. But that’s only if USC must pass. Riley is more than happy to lean on the run game if he needs to, and
Travis Dye and
Austin Jones are combining for 131 rushing yards per game at 6.5 yards per carry. Utah’s run defense is mediocre at best, and if USC is still unbeaten as of Sunday morning, it’s likely to be because the Trojans ran the ball better than the Utes.
Current line: Utah -3.5 (down from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Utah by 6.8 | FPI projection: Utah by 4.1.
Utah @ 
Arizona State 
.
