ESPN’s Current FPI rankings have UCLA at 15.8% (19th) and Utah at 14.7% (23rd), yet the projection is for Utah 55.8% over UCLA 44.2%. How do they come up with this stuff?
The FPI is a single metric that is heavy on offense and UCLA has a better offense than we do so by that metric they are ranked higher. However they give us a slight edge in this game and a better chance of winning out which accounts for things not included in the FPI. Basically they are admitting the FPI is not the end all/be all of metrics.