Hope For the Future

[The Miami Ute]

Just like in politics there are no eternal friends nor eternal enemies, in the current NIL-fueled college football landscape there are no eternal winners nor eternal losers.

Indiana: 3-9 last season, 10-0 this year.
ASU: 3-9 last season, 7-2 this year.
Colorado: 4-8 last season, 7-2 this year.
BYU: 5-7 last season, 9-0 this year.
Washington: 14-1 last season, 5-5 this year.
Michigan: 15-0 last season, 5-5 this year.
FSU: 13-1 last season, 1-9 this year.

My point is that you can have all of the resources in the world and, still, nothing is guaranteed. So, just because you’re great this season, well, all that means is that you’re great this season. You’d be a fool to think anything else. Conversely, just because you crapped the bed this season, doesn’t mean next season has to follow the same template provided you make the necessary adjustments and are a little bit more fortunate.

[Utah]

Also, there is no Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon in the Big 12.

Utah could easily run the table next year, in large part because the Big 12 is so bad.

[The Miami Ute]

Absolutely. As you say, no dominant team exists in the Big 12. Any or all could go winless or undefeated. UCF is sitting on a veritable recruiting gold mine. So is Houston. ASU close to it, not only because of the huge Phoenix area, but because of their proximity and history with SoCal recruits…any of those teams gets their stuff together, they could leave the rest in the dust.

[2008 National Champ]

Let’s not start that again. Utah needs to at least finish their humble pie before it’s fans start demanding respect not yet earned.

If it wasn’t obvious before, it should be now. College football is a QB driven game. Iowa State and K State will be bringing back junior QB’s with plenty of starting experience. TCU just needs to figure out their defense because they are set with Hoover. Not sure if Retzlaff has another year. Cincinatti got a good one out of the portal, ironically from Indiana, who has two years left. That’s 4, maybe 5, QB situations much better than Utah’s off the top of my head. And doesn’t include the Arizona’s who I would take their QB’s over anything in Utah’s pipeline or radar.

[The Miami Ute]

I’m not sold on Retzlaff. He was horrible last year and, with the exception of a couple of drives, last weekend versus Utah. Is he serviceable? Yeah, I guess so…but he’s not carrying the team on his back ala a Cam Rising or Caleb Williams…a guy like him has plenty of unfixable holes that can be exploited no matter his experience.

[2008 National Champ]

I’m not putting Retzlaff up for the Heisman. I’m saying that if he has another year of eligibility, I like the parochial school’s QB situation better Utah’s. Sitake has followed the Whitt model to a T. He’s got a strong, opportunistic Defense. His special teams are solid. And he’s got a QB who doesn’t wilt under pressure against the best D he will see before the playoffs.

Look at Utah’s expected/potential QB’s for next year and tell me you wouldn’t take a year of Retzlaff:

Rising: maybe the bionic man can come back and stay healthy for a season. not something I want to find out
Wilson: you’d be putting a lot of faith in anticipated improvement, even if you ignored all the smoke around him
Rose: he’s chasing Seven for most season ending injuries and has thrown 36 career passes
Huard: the staff didn’t think enough of him to give him an honest chance to start this year
Becker: if I was him I’d be rethinking my commitment right about now

I’m not going to relitigate Rising coming back and what it’s done to the QB room the last 2 years. But, for me at least, letting Ludwig go also means a complete overhaul of said QB room. If someone wants to stay with no guarantees of playing time or even having a leg up on the competition, fine. But there needs to be at least 2 new QB’s in the room for the next 3 years before I would even begin to believe the situation had stabilized.

[Tony (admin)]

If only Whitt followed Whitt’s model to a T….

[Anfernee]

It’s so true. If Rising (I know I know) stays healthy OR we had brought in a competent veteran QB transfer, very good chance we’d be like 8-1. R E L A X

[2008 National Champ]

that’s an interesting coping technique. why even have a season? just let the fans decide the outcome they want and then there’s no reason to play the games.

[The Miami Ute]

Have you seen Diego Pavia’s (Vanderbilt QB) suit against the NCAA? Really interesting…he’s trying to make the case that age or time-related eligibility requirements in NCAA competitions are unconstitutional. If he won, which is not a given, it could mean that a guy like Cam Rising could keep playing, should he want to, at the U forever without worrying about aging out. Remember Jordan Noyes? Well, he’s 32, married with three children, and is still in college football, kicking for Colorado State. That could be the shape of things to come.

[2008 National Champ]

I have and hope he succeeds. It would close an inequity in how eligible years are counted that was created through the Covid year and transfer requirements. I’m not sure how many kids it would actually help based on the new rules but the point about Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel getting 5 full seasons as starting QB’s while he in only able to do 3 is valid. And he’s now high enough profile that the suit probably has a chance.

[Anfernee]

It’s not coping. It’s showing all the overtly negative Nellie’s that things can change quickly. I understand why we are here and the mistakes made. I’m a realist but also try to keep some rational optimism.

[2008 National Champ]

I like optimism. But you are assuming that a healthy Rising this season would have produced like he did two years ago and in our limited sample of the first half of Baylor, that wasn’t true. I don’t fault him for not performing while injured against ASU, but he does have a history of having to play hurt even if you don’t count the season ending injuries.

There is also your assumption that a veteran QB transfer would have performed better in the 2024 Utah offense, with all it’s warts, than what Wilson and Rose have been able to. So when you say “very good chance we’d be like 8-1”, I would say “very good chance we’d be the same 4-5” Utah is right now.

I’ve wanted a veteran QB transfer the last 2 offseasons but I also know the success rate of those transfers doesn’t make it a given they will work out. My thinking was that in the highly unlikely event that Rising was not able to play in 2023 or 2024, there would be someone in the room that at least had enough experience to provide competent QB play while the young kids had a chance to build up their skillsets instead of getting thrown into the deep end and failing like we’ve witnessed.

[Anfernee]

So I’m going off of our first 9 games. We wouldn’t need Pac12 game or someone similar. Look at our scores. Its maddening. Just something above ineptitude would put us at a damn decent record this year.

[2008 National Champ]

I agree on that. I posted over the weekend that just getting to 25 points in every game would have been enough to be 8-1. But I meant that as a compliment to how consistent the defense has been because if 27 against ASU constitutes a blowup, you’re doing pretty damn good every week.

It’s that next step of changing individual play outcomes in your mind to get to that 25 points (or 24 if you want to quibble) while assuming that everything else stays the same that I call coping.

If we can’t agree on that, “You’re so pretty. I really like what you’ve done with your hair”

[Anfernee]

Thank you. 😊

[lgt4141]

No reason Utah can’t have a resurgent season next year. Whether Whitt or Morgan is the coach the defense can be counted on.

[press-on]

“R E L A X” said the guests on the Titanic. It was just a little ‘shudder’.

[silverliningsurfer]

I have no idea what Indiana’s NIL budget looks like but I’d imagine their boosters are longing more for basketball resurgence instead of going in on football, especially considering they could dominate B10 basketball. Definitely agree that they are an example of hope that, if nothing else, schools like Utah can still catch lightning in a bottle and make a strong playoff push.

The caveats I’ll add are:
(i.) CFB fans on the whole are going to have to adjust to a new mindset. What I hate about the current setup is that with the old bowl system, you could win a solid bowl and feel good about your season. For 95% of programs, simply making the playoffs, and maybe winning 1 game, should be viewed as a great accomplishment, even though the team will have nothing to show for it. As much as CFB is morphing into NFL-lite, where a fanbase wouldn’t celebrate losing in the wild card or divisional round, we need to acknowledge that only a handful of programs are REALLY going to be competing for championships.

(ii.) I think most Utah fans are hoping for sustained competitiveness and (relative) success versus being a flash in the pan. It remains to be seen if schools like CU and ASU are building something or having a lucky year (like BYU and IU are, imo). Most IU fans will probably take the season regardless, but if they fade back into mediocrity, it sucks that they don’t have a bowl game they can go and compete in.

Even though Utah lost to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, we can still at least celebrate that it was probably a Top-5 all time game in the most storied game in CFB. Losing to Ohio State on a walk off FG in a playoff game just doesn’t mean as much. Even winning a playoff game isn’t as impactful if you get steamrolled the next week. This is something CFB needs to figure out imo

[2008 National Champ]

Interesting thought exercise on your 2nd point. Indiana, a team that really only aspired to being mediocre every year has a legitimate shot at the playoff. If Cignetti rides all the accolades to the highest paying SEC job after this year and they go back to fighting for the bottom of the B1G? They know their level and can always point back to that one time (Little Giants reference) when everything came together and they were the talk of the town. And maybe, just maybe they can do it again so there’s always hope.

On the other hand you have Utah. Remarkably consistent Utah. Never great but always better than most. 9-3, begets 9-3 and is followed by 9-3. What’s the hope every year? A 2 game improvement that is less about an increase in performance and more about taking advantage of a couple more opportunities than usual. But eventually 9-3 becomes a disappointment. And you start having discussions about whether the guy who wins roughly 75% of the time is capable of doing the job anymore. The conversation has changed from success v failure to what amount of success constitutes failure.

Which is then the happier fanbase? I’d say Indiana is the healthier while Utah is captured in a Groundhog Day loop.

[Author]

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