How many catches per game

[ProudUte]

The post below about Enis (I totally agree with it) got me thinking about how many pass receptions we have to go around.  In our best passing year in a long time (2019) we averaged 23 receptions per game.

Below is my unscientific estimate of the average receptions per game for our top guys.

Covey and Kuithe – 5 receptions each per game (If these two stay healthy – I think it is a very conservative estimate that these two will average 10 receptions per game between them.)

Running backs – 4

Howard – 3 (I suspect he will be our deep threat)

Other tight ends 2 (Fotheringham and Kincaid will be in the mix)

That would be 19 catches and leave only 4 catches between Dixon, Enis, Vele, et al.

These are just raw estimates from me, not a prediction.  So, how many receptions will we have to go around?  I believe most of us would love to see Enis and Dixon get their opportunities.  So, do we pass more?  I highly doubt we will see a reception rate close to the 73% we saw in 2019.

Just food for thought

[Dresden_Stormblessed]

This is such a tough question because SO much of it is “well….that depends.”

If our O-line is doing well, you bet your butt we’re gonna pound the rock by committee all day. Play action would then open up but that’s to TE and short routes mostly. Is Brewer or Rising just going to shine when they come in and open up the playbook more? Is our run/pass ratio going to increase if our QB’s are doing really well? Just so many if’s.

I believe our O-line and QB play will increase this year. That just brings so many options. It will also depend on the game and the matchups. So if I had to guess…I’m guessing we get 30 pass attempts per game. 10 of which are incomplete. That’s 20 balls to go around for everybody per game. Kuithe will get at LEAST 6 a game. Same with Covey. That’s 8 to go for literally everyone else. Man…it’s looking thin. I’m honestly intrigued to see what happens with the new WR talent and the QB expectations I have. This will be one truly interesting year.

One for-sure thing I can bank on: we will have an increase of non-play action plays. I think we put more trust into the arm of both Rising and Brewer than we do Huntley’s legs.

A question I’d like answered is does the WR want a lot of opportunities or a few big-time balls? E.g. in an offense where you’re passing 70% of the time, your routes are all over the place. Short, long, in, out, etc. When you’re a run-heavy offense, you’re either mostly blocking or running dummy routes (do a fade to block a CB and Safety without actually touching them). Would you rather get passed the ball 4 times a game but each one is 20+ yard potential or get 8 throws to you for much shorter average yardage.

If I were them, I think my main goal would be to score. Preferably personnally. I’ve been a lineman so I can honestly say blocking gets old, especially when you get the elation of catching a pass, moving the chains, juking a dude, and taking it to the house.

[2008 National Champ]

I think you looked at the wrong column. Utah averaged 23 PASSES per game in 2019, not receptions: Utah 2019 Stats There were only 17 catches per game to distribute.

2019 is not really a good year for comparing since it was well out of the norm. Whit teams have averaged 30.07 passes/gm during his time at Utah and 29.05 since they have been in the Pac 12. They also averaged 7.5 yds/att total and 7.43 in the Pac. 2019: 23 passes/gm, 10.3 yds/att.

If you were to assume 30 passes/gm in 2021 with a 65% completion rate, you still don’t get to 20 receptions per game, but it would be a more reasonable target.

[ProudUte]

You sir, are correct.  I got the wrong column.  Your estimate of 20 catches per game makes the number of catches per receiver even less.  The question remains – who gets the catches?  I still think that Kuithe and Covery will average 10-12 catches per game combined.  That leaves 8-10 for the rest of the team.  

I would like to see us pass a bit more, but I am happy with doing whatever works best for us to win.

[2008 National Champ]

If you factor in all touches, I think you get a little better distribution. Assume 5 carries for Kuithe/Covey/Dixon on jet, fly or orbit sweeps and it frees up a few targets in the passing game for everyone else.

I’d love for eye-popping #’s to happen but it’s not what Whitt wants. His goal is to limit possessions so you can only count on around 60 plays/gm for the offense. Your distribution at the top of the thread feels about right for targets. I’d personally rather see a more efficient passing game which would involve the bigger receivers more instead of the “wait until 3rd and long and try to find somebody deep” that they’ve done under Ludwig. But I can’t make the QB’s throw to Enis or anyone else.

I do feel that they should limit the times they run Covey into the scrum hoping to make something happen. For as talented as the kid is, he’s just not a feature player. But if they can get the D’s focus elsewhere, it makes Covey that much more dangerous. Scheming him into space like Roderick did, and Sarkisian did with DeVonta Smith, would be my preference.

[Yergensen]

Factor we’re more than 50% run.  Account for TE usage.  Then you add our WR rotation (too many guys IMO) and there aren’t alot of targets to go around.

Hard for WR who need/want targets.  I’ve argued in the past more targets need to be going to playmakers.  JD and BThompson averaging 1-2 receptions per game (number of targets not much higher) was/is not nearly enough.

[Charlie]

The defenses will determine these numbers. We develop as many options as possible. Then, game by game each defense will have cracks that Ludwig will go after. If the defense fails to respond there will be rinse and repeat and each game will have different number distribution. The next most important factor will be the score in the second half and 4th quarter. In close games or a game we are behind there will be more aggressive passes and more passing. In games we have in control, the play book begins to close, the clock runs, and there are lots of running plays or low risk passes. I only expect the passing numbers to climb if we are fighting to win or the defense if overloaded against the run. I am hopeful that each big game sees a successful attack from a different strategy. Winning is a good replacement for individual numbers.

[Author]

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