Based on? MLB? MLB was a cluster from the beginning. Hopefully the players and owners in the NFL will be more on the same page in creating a virtual COVID “bubble” with frequent testing. Soccer leagues managed to pull this off, not sure how.
Haven’t been following the whole country but my state is seeing a notable drop off from late July peak in cases. Unfortuately the fatality numbers are slower to drop but a lag is to be expected. Still the fatality peak was approx the same as in April, so they are doing significantly better on treatment protocols, it seems.
EDIT: Checked Worldometer and US stats also peaked in case detections in mid-to-late July, with a similar lag in fatality peak by 2-3 weeks — again lag is to be expected. In the US the July daily fatality peak was significantly lower than the April peak.