Your points are very valid. Another thing to consider. Which is the sos of games played so far, per ESPN:
Utah: 87
UCLA: 119
USC: 103
Oregon: 13
USC and UCLA have yet to really be challenged. I’d argue we are one tier above and have been challenged more than them with an opener in SEC land. I think we win these two games.
Oregon on the other hand. They got the opportunity to play against the best team in the nation imo. Doesn’t help their head coach was part of that same team last year. And we are on the road. If we are going to drop another game this year, it’s going to be this one.