Initial Vegas line: Stanford -3…

[gothamute]

A function of our (admittedly) weak schedule thus far, I’m sure. We’ll find out a lot about who we really are this season starting Saturday night…

[newute50]

I’m really curious to see how our run defense does. If we can shut down Love on the ground, we have a pretty good chance of winning.

[Onlyu]

I read this morning that Love has at least a 50 yard run in 6 straight games.  I think holding them under 200 yards…70+ below their average keeps us right there.  End that big play streak and hold them under 150 and we win going away.  

They’re averaging 8.4 yards a carry…Wow!!

Conversely, they are only averaging 188 yds through the air so hold them at or around that average and under 200 on the ground that’s under you’re looking at somewhere around 350 yards.  I’d think that would be good enough for a win provided we’re close to our own averages on offense. We match up pretty well with their physicality and the fact that they only scored 24 against USC and 17 at SDSU helps me to think a strong front 7 gives them issues.  They don’t really have a playmaker at QB.

Not sure how well we can run it without the Tyler dynamic though so Troy is going to have to play well.

 

 

[gothamute]

I’ve seen most of every Stanford game so far, and their offense is pretty uni-dimensional -> give Love the rock. Love is a legit Heisman contender, though, so I don’t see any defense really shutting him down (“You can only hope to CONTAIN him!”) but it will be an interesting strength on strength matchup versus our Run D.

Their defense is surprisingly average (for their standards) so I think this game will come down to can we stop them more than they stop us. Regardless of who is playing QB I think we can score on more possessions than they can, but hopefully we’re not settling for FGs while Love gets into the end zone.

I think we should win but probably it will stay pretty close throughout.

[Tony (admin)]

Looks like we will continue our streak of beating the spread then.

[SkinyUte]

I’ve seen all sorts of Utah fans up in arms because Utah hasn’t been “getting respect”.

Reality is that we’ve beaten three truly horrible teams, and one bad team. Save the griping about respect until we’ve actually done something that would be worthy of it. Beating Stanford would be a good start.

[gothamute]

^ THIS ^

[THEeyepatch]

Wrong! Other than SJSU, Utah has played three close games against weak-to-average (NDU-Arizona) competition. If Utah had ‘dump trucked’ everybody else, the Utes rankings would be higher as well as respect.

[KiYi-Ute]

Line has already jumped to Utah by 1

[Larry B]

I’m showing Stanford -4.5 

[Onlyu]

Going the other way right now at +5.5 – 6…doesn’t mean anything except the sharps (professional gamblers) are on the Furd!  Just means the gambling educated (degenerate) thinks Stanford wins…big deal.  We’ve been this type of dog numerous times the past couple of years and won outright.

It probably retreats to around 4 or -4.5 at game time.  Utah is 4-0 against the spread so far this year…If I wasn’t a Ute I’d probably fade them too based on that fact alone.

Gonna be a good game…

[shakeitsugaree]

Yes

If I hadn’t quit my job to go to graduate school I’d bet Utah to win on the moneyline, assuming Utah is still the dog when that comes out.

$$ to be made on this one!

[shakeitsugaree]

First, where are you getting these odds? Bovada doesn’t have them – Vegas Insiders has the opening line, but not the updated line – confused.

Second, people try to infer football knowledge into these odds, and it’s just not a good idea. Lines have relatively little to do with actual football outcomes, and more to do with getting people to bet.

Let’s take Stanford -3: the standard ‘home field advantage’ is -3, so do the oddsmakers really think Utah is a +6 underdog on a neutral field? No – they want people to bet. So, they decide that most bettors aren’t going to take Utah and give points to Stanford (prolly a good assessment), so they open with Furd -3. Then, knowledgeable bettors see the opportunity, place bets on Utah and the line moves.

Point is, don’t read too much into betting odds in college football – they truly don’t offer a lot of insight into anything actually related to the game being played, such as who the better team is, and by what margin will they win by.

[EagleMountainUte]

This and forever this. Vegas wants the house to win it doesn’t build all those fancy casinos with borrowed money from China like the US government. 

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