Interesting Big Ten Expansion Analysis by FiveThirtyEight

[KoolWhitt]

Not sure if you all have seen, but FiveThirtyEight published today a very interesting analysis of possible candidates for Big Ten expansion.

The analysis was based on athletic performance (with particular emphasis on football), media market, and cultural fit (essentially a composite of AAU status and being the flagship public university of the school’s state/market). The analysis included all remaining members of the ACC, Big12, and PAC, plus a few independents and G5s.

Out of the 38 schools analyzed, Utah finished 7th, and in the same tier as Clemson, Miami, Stanford, and Cal.

The schools above Utah included ND (duh), Oregon, Washington, Florida State, and UNC. Although this is hardly a definitive analysis and it is impossible to know what the powers of the Big Ten are actually thinking, it is cool to see that Utah is objectively a solid if not good choice for Big Ten expansion.

Further, the schools above or immediately below Utah are hardly home runs for the Big Ten. There’s a distinct if not likely possibility that ND, Clemson, Florida State, and Miami would decline an offer to join (ND being content with independence and the others holding out for the SEC) and, as the analysis itself explicitly states, I’m not sure it makes sense for the Big Ten to add BOTH Stanford and Cal just to get the Bay Area market, which is largely indifferent to college sports in general. I’ve always thought that if Utah can either make the CFP this year or make the Rose Bowl again (even better if they win it), Utah can make a very decent case as someone the Big Ten should be interested in. It’s nice to see some additional analysis to back that up.

[Ute2]

I cannot for the life of me fathom how Cal is more attractive than us…

big markets don’t matter if nobody cares and nobody is watching.  

can anybody devils advocate Cal for me???

[Ute2]

Also, does Stanford hang with us when you exclusively consider eyeballs and competitiveness??  I suppose they might but that stadium is awfully empty… thoughts??

 I get their academics…  but who cares about that?  Fox??

[Uphoric]

It is Pacific Coast sports apathy.  The interest in all sports around the west coast has substaintially declined.  Younger types are just not in to sports let alone attending games.  The only school with a decent following is USC.

I don’t understand why a conference would consider Pacific Coast schools for expansion. I know they think they’re getting eyeballs but attendance and viewership has faultered.    Even UW is declining. . . 

[KoolWhitt]

Agreed on all points, though I do think that the Big Ten will continue to expand to create a more tenable geographic situation for USC/UCLA. If they don’t, then every road game for those two is a cross country trip, and that won’t be sustainable.

I think at the very least the Big Ten expands to 20 teams. Assuming one is Notre Dame (the biggest fish still available and a team USC plays every year anyway), then that leaves 3 spots, which I believe will go to Oregon, Washington, and Stanford. That establishes enough short trips for USC and keeps several historical rivalries (which usually attracts eyeballs no matter what) intact. The only downside here is that it prevents the Big Ten from having markets in all four time zones (the mountain being left out).

If ND doesn’t join, Utah could be the best option for that fourth team. We keep USC’s travel reasonable (the east coast teams lumped in with us in the analysis do not), we provide the mountain time zone, and we fit very well culturally (big, public, flagship university that is an AAU member).

So I think we have to hope either that ND says no thanks or that the Big Ten expands to 24 teams. Either way, I think it is crucial that we make an NY6 bowl this year (CFP, even better). Doing so is the only thing we can somewhat control in the immediate term that would really help our case.

[KoolWhitt]

The methodology places quite a bit of emphasis on cultural fit, and stresses that the Big Ten values large, public, flagship schools that are AAU members. Cal ticks all of those boxes, and while Stanford is private, it is makes up ground by being so strong academically. And while it is tempting to downplay those factors in favor of things like media market and competitiveness in football, it is worth noting that Utah’s score also benefits substantially from the cultural fit category, so what is good for Cal/Stanford in that regard is also good for Utah.

Both Cal/Stanford also benefit from having been in the PAC so long, as they have both had over a century to create “rivalries” with Big Ten schools via Rose Bowl appearances. Also, though it is not mentioned in the analysis, I have to think that in real life the Big Ten might invite Stanford as an incentive to lure in the real prize: Stanford’s long time rival Notre Dame.

Finally, Stanford’s score benefits considerably from its many NCAA titles in other sports.

[Hellhound152]

As long as these conferences hold themselves out as havens for student athletes and “like minded” institutions of higher learning, UC Berkeley as one of the top public universities in America will have a seat at the table.  All of the arguments to keep Boise St. out of the Pac 12 work the same way for Cal and Stanford’s inclusion in the Big 10 if it happens. As long as the myth of student/athletes exists the quality of the product will not matter in some instances and the Bay area schools will be exhibit A of that line of thought.

[Central Coast Ute]

It puts the big 10 network on tv’s for subscribers in the bay area, which beats out SLC every time. Before anyone says anything about cord cutting, we’re not there yet. Traditional cable/satellite still rule.

[dystopiamembrane]

Rich alumni 

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