Is P12 CCG hope still alive? Is this scenario correct?

[SalUteopia]

Whether we deserve it or not, whether we get crushed or not, I’d still rather fall ass backwards into the P12 CCG than sit at home. @krindor pointed out this scenario that still gets us in:

OSU defeats UO, Utah beats Colorado, UW beats WSU, and UCLA beats Cal.

All these teams have a good to very good chance of winning. Even OSU over UO. OSU is ranked, has a stout D, and playing a hobbled UO at home. And surely their QB play can’t be any worse than ours (or can it?).

Don’t get your hopes up, but still better than nothing. 

[DataUte]

On paper, UW seems like a good pick to win. But they are on the road for Wazzu senior day. PAC12 road games are always a toss up.

On paper, UCLA seems like a good pick to win. But they are on the road for Wazzu senior day. PAC12 road games are always a toss up. And they are deflated after home losses to AZ and USC. I could see infighting and DTR being selfish to get stats.

Oregon St. at home on senior day against a banged up Oregon has a chance. I don’t know of they match up well, but they have the conference’s best D (pts during conf play). They seem balanced pass and run, but seems like Oregon pass D is much worse than their run D.

We’ve been left out in a tie before. Doesn’t mean it’s our turn, but usually our luck goes another way. Most likely is USC-Oregon. But would like to see a high scoring shootout between USC UW too.

[2008 National Champ]

it’s definitely possible, but it’s around 4th or 5th on the likelihood scale. The most likely is that Oregon wins and they are in. And should UW lose in Pullman, Oregon is still in no matter what happens against OSU. Last night took Utah from being in the drivers seat in most of the tie-breaking scenarios to needing a lot of help. FPI currently gives Utah a 0.0% chance of winning the conference while UW is at 7.9% so it’s pretty obvious that they now have the edge in most scenarios.

Using FPI, the scenario you (and @Kindor) laid out has a probability of: 42.3% (OSU beats Oregon) times 97.9% (Utah beats Colorado) times 53.1% (UW beats WSU) times 69.8% (UCLA beats Cal) equals 15.3%

[2008 National Champ]

Follow up:

1. Oregon wins: 57.7%. Oregon in CCG
2. WSU wins: 46.9%. Oregon in CCG with win or loss against OSU due to H2H against Utah

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