It’s good to see Keanu with 30min & Ezra with 16min

[Minnesota Ute]

But not sure why he shouldn’t be starting. Here are their adv stats for the season. The only solid edge for Ezra is Keanu has a lot of turnovers. But I can’t help believing that it has something to do with the limited minutes and the way he is being used. He has played the equivalent of 2 whole games less (80min) than has Ezra, yet he is superior in every statistical category. Other than, I guess, getting to FT line, but what good is that when you can’t make them.

Ezra Kenau
Player Efficiency 19.8 23.5
True Shooting % 55.3% 69.9%
3pt Attempt Rate 2.9% 27.8%
FT Attempt Rate 81.0% 58.2%
Points Produced 193 128
Off Rebound % 11.1 10.9
Def Rebound % 13.5 22.6
Total Rebound % 12.4 17.1
Assist % 8.6 11
Block % 2.3 3.9
Turnover % 13.7 17.2
Usage % 28.4 19.7
Off Win Share 0.7 0.9
Def Win Share 0.7 0.7
Win Share Tot 1.4 1.6
Win Share Per 40M 0.149 0.207
Off Bench +/- 1.2 4.1
Def Bench +/- 1.4 3
Bench +/- 2.6 7.1

One of these players is

[Minnesota Ute]

Sorry for the formatting, I guess I don’t really know what I’m doing there.

[utefansince79]

What did Ezra do on the technical? Figured he was unhappy about getting shoved around a few times (and officials were letting both teams get aggressive, in particular in the first half) and he said or did something to express his feelings.

[GameForAnyFuss]

He was mouthing off after a no-call. Too bad – he was playing really well until then. The tech was his 2nd personal so he had to sit the rest of the half. Craig pulled him right away and gave him a long talking-to. Ezra didn’t seem to be in the right headspace the entire rest of the game.

Ezra is a fun but frustrating player to watch. He’ll look like an NBA prospect one time down the floor, then the next time down he’ll do something mind-numbingly dumb. My kingdom for Ezra to find some consistency.

[Ute Dub]

What’s wrong with coming off the bench? He likely gets less shots playing with the first team. Coming off the bench he gets more shots against the oppositions second squad.

[Minnesota Ute]

The player usage would suggest otherwise, but regardless, I don’t think that’s the right way to look at it. His impact isn’t in the shots he takes necessarily, it’s in his overall productivity. He is better than Ezra in almost every category, and they are very similar players; same height, same hops, same position, same strength. So why not start Keanu and play him 30-35min a game, and bring Ezra off the bench for 15-20 a game. He would bring more energy off the bench anyway as he is a bit more flashy and a bit more of a ball hog. So let him play with the second team, instead of having him back people down while our other best 4 players watch.

[Ute Dub]

The minutes you described, is exactly what happened last night. Why does it matter when he enters the game?

But let’s look at the Baylor game. In Dawes 19 minutes he scored 0 points, while Auser score 19 points in 27 minutes. Then let’s look back at the BYU game. Auser scored 26 points in 31 minutes and Dawes score 5 in 11 minutes. Recency bias is strong with you but might not be in your arguments favor?

[Minnesota Ute]

It’s not recency bias, its season stats. You cherry pick two games, I look at the body of work.

[Minnesota Ute]

If you don’t like recency, here are 3 terrible games for Ezra that aren’t recent.

Iowa St: 24 min, 2-7 for 4ps, 28%fg, 4 rb, 0-2 ft, and 2 turnovers
Houston: 21 min, 1 pt, 2 to, 0-4 for 0%fg, 3 rb
Baylor#1: 20 min, 1-8 12.5% 3pts, 6 rb

I challenge you to come up with even 2 games that bad that Keanu had when he played more than 17 min.

Baylor #2 was bad, 19 min 0-2 for 0% and no points, 1 reb, 1 st, 1 bk, 1 to
Texas Tech and Houston were his next two worst games where he played major minutes.
TT: 2-4 50% 11 pts, 5 rb, 1 bl, 3 to
Houston: 2-4 50% for 7 pts, 9 rb, 1 asst, 2 to

I’m sorry, I really don’t understand why I even have to have this argument. It’s just not even a close comparison. For some reason Smith just doesn’t like or trust Keanu. But all he does is make plays.

[Ute Dub]

Did you really site 3 point attempt rate as a significant stat to support your argument?

[Minnesota Ute]

It’s a copy paste. It’s one of the stats it gives, not one I cited. Make sense?

[Holladay Ute]

The tough thing w/ both of these players is that they lack consistency. One night, a force to be reckoned with. Another night, super pedestrian. Until one of them shows more consistency, I think you play whoever shows up to the game in attack mode.

I like both players and think they both deserve good minutes. Ausar won us the BYU game, almost single-handedly. Dawes has been key in games like TCU and Cincinnati. At this stage, I don’t think it’s clear that one should be consistently getting the lions share of minutes. Neither of them is consistent enough for that.

[Minnesota Ute]

Agree to disagree. While everyone, EVERYONE, has off games, Kenau despite limited minutes coming off the bench, he has been far more consistent than Ezra. His season stats show that.

Keanu Stats

Ezra

Look at these, and sort them by minutes played, look at the games where they played +20 min, then be honest with yourself. Keanu is a no brainer.

[Holladay Ute]

Here is a summary of all the games that were either losses or against conference opponents:

Cincinnati: Dawes was hot and got the minutes. Ausar didn’t have that bad of a game though. Both of them had 4 turnovers, but Ausar produced an efficient 11 points in the 16 minutes he played.

Baylor: Ausar was hot and got the minutes. He was basically the only reason we were somewhat competitive in that game. Dawes played 19 minutes and was a complete no show.

@ Houston: Dawes played 25 minutes. His stats are decent, but clearly didn’t impact the game enough. Ausar played 21 minutes and was bad. So I could see an argument that Dawes should’ve played 5-10 more minutes than they gave him, but he also had a 3 fouls that game and it wouldn’t have made a difference anyway. Neither of them was keeping us in the game when they played…

BYU: Obviously no argument here. Ausar basically single-handedly won us this game. He deserved every minute he got over Dawes. Dawes’ stats were okay, but he was more pedestrian when he played.

@ TCU: Dawes played more minutes and had a great game. Ausar wasn’t bad in the limited minutes he played. We won so it’s hard to criticize how coach allocated the minutes.

OK State: Dawes played slightly more minutes. Both of them had a great game. We won.

@ Iowa State: Tough game for Ausar. Dawes only played 2 minutes.

Texas Tech: Ausar didn’t play. Dawes got 20 minutes and was pretty good (but we still got blown out, just like Houston).

@ Baylor: This looks like Dawes should’ve gotten more minutes than Ausar. Fair criticism here.

Iowa: Ausar played 10 minutes. Dawes didn’t play at all.

Saint Mary’s: Dawes played 3 minutes. Ausar played 17 minutes. Fair criticism here too.

Mississippi State: Dawes had a great game, but he fouled out.

So what do I see? I see 4 games this season where I am confused about Dawes’ minutes: @ Iowa State, @ Baylor, Iowa, and Saint Mary’s. In three of these games, Dawes either didn’t play or he got low single-digit minutes. There has to be something to that. All of those games were kind of in the same stretch of the season. Basically, Smith didn’t play Dawes much during the whole month of December. Was he injured or sick? Maybe he was practicing poorly or there was some sort of discipline needed? Dawes got plenty of minutes in November and he’s been getting plenty of minutes in January. December is the month where you scratch your head a little bit, but Ausar’s minutes dipped meaningfully in December too. Maybe you chalk it up to Smith trying to figure out his team (which would be unfortunate)?

Anyway, I still feel like it depends on who has the hot hand w/ these two players. I think they both deserve good minutes…and if one of them is having a good night, keep feeding them…if they aren’t, stick them on the bench. Dawes seems a little more consistent generally, but still disappears more often than just having an “off game” (he was not much of a factor for several games in a row after TCU and before Cincinnati).

[utefansince79]

As far as off games go, I really miss Worster who we lost in the portal. Was always reliable to have a handful of assists, handful of rebounds, and a few baskets, and made few turnovers. Seldom had a game he didn’t make a good contribution.

[Minnesota Ute]

Very good analysis, my only caveats to everything you said is that, because he is generally more consistent, we’ll never really know (at least this year) what type of player he could have been if he played the 30 min per game. It’s easy to say that, for example, that Ezra single handedly won the BYU game. But Keaunu played just 11 min to Ezra’s 31min. They are very similar players in many respects, especially size and athleticism, the only stat I can find where Ezra stands out is fewer turnovers. Keanu is more efficient offensively (69% eFG vs 53%; 126 ORtg vs 109), he is better at FT (70% vs 59%), He is more efficient defensively (96.2 vs 100.7 DRtg); rebounding (TRB% 17.1 vs 12.4).

Maybe Ezra improving or Keanu falling off will make me eat my words. And I know you can never prove a negative, so I’m not trying to make that argument, necessarily. I guess my fear is that the inconsistent playing time and lack of recognition for the consistency he shows (which shows up in the ‘fair criticism’ and DNP in your analysis) will cause him to enter the portal. Then next year, I will have to waste people’s time on this board posting about him averaging a Double Double at Arizona, BYU, or some other program that is going to the dance while we sit out yet again. Because that’s what I see happening. It’s hard to see someone that objectively isn’t playing as well or consistently as you are getting starts and minutes, nobody wants to be treated that way.

[Holladay Ute]

Good points. To me, it feels like we have too many guys who deserve 20 minutes per game and not enough guys who deserve 30 minutes per game. The best teams in our conference (and in the country) seem to have 3-4 guys that clearly carry the load and where the team is built around them. We have Gabe and Gabe is great, but he seemed to thrive as the #2-3 option, not as the #1 option. For us, we have a lot of good players but I don’t know if we have many (if any) great players. And I think that’s why we get blown out by the great teams in our league and stay competitive w/ everyone else.

I like Dawes and, like you said, I think he deserves more minutes. At the same time, is he a guy capable of taking over a game? Maybe, but it’s not clear to me. This could be poor analysis on my part, but I feel like he is a player that needs his teammates to help him create offense. When he scores, I feel like he’s cutting or rolling (or maybe getting an offensive rebound). I don’t feel like I’ve seen him create offense on his own (that often)? Can he post somebody up down low? Can he drive to the basket w/ the ball? Maybe, but I feel like we haven’t seen it often (if ever)? The nice thing about Ausar is that he can clearly create offense on his own and force defenses to hone in on him. I’m not sure we get that w/ Dawes? Maybe the coaching staff just hasn’t put him in those positions, like you said.

As it relates to Craig Smith, it’s just so clear that last year was a big failure. We had multiple great players. Branden Carlson looks like he deserves a spot on an NBA roster (and might earn that on the best team in the league). Deivon Smith is one of the better players on one of the best college teams in the country. And then Gabe. This trio of players should have made it into March Madness. And they should have contended for the conference title in a softer power conference like the Pac-12. We didn’t have as much depth last year as we do this year, but we still had plenty of decent or solid role players (Worster, Bajema, Lovering, and Keita). Last year is still such a big disappointment.

[Minnesota Ute]

Very good point on Ezra creating. I have a little love/hate relationship with that though, because sometimes it seems like when he is backing people down, the rest of the team sort of stops and watches. And too many times, especially against good athletic teams, he backs them down only to get blocked, his shot altered to miss, or he is fouled and misses the free throws. So I guess at a minimum, it’s good to have that contrast between Ez that can create inside and Keanu that’s more of a threat from outside, but a large overlap in rebounding and dunking capability.

Relative to your point about coaching and how they are using him, and his potential or possibly lack thereof for creating his own offense, one interesting analog may be Kuzma. His final season, I don’t think most people thought of him as someone who would have a significant impact in the NBA. Yeah that was Larry, not Craig, but it feels similar to me. He is now in his 8th season in the NBA, and has averaged as much or more points in the NBA than he did in his Junior year of college in 5 of those 8 seasons. Not that he wasn’t good at Utah, but someone that has accomplished as much as he has in the NBA, you would have thought he would have dominated in college.

Totally agree on Craig and your description of last season. At the beginning of last season I was still bought in and supported him with high hopes, by midseason I had serious doubts, by the end I was OUT. The defections from last year’s roster sort of confirmed for me that I wasn’t alone.

[Holladay Ute]

Great point on Kuzma. It’s also a shame that w/ three legit NBA players (Wright, Poetl, and Kuzma), we only got one Sweet 16 appearance. Obviously grateful for that one year, but it seems like we had the talent to potentially go deeper than we did. Unfortunately, we ran into the eventual champs that year!

I like Craig Smith and I think he’s fine. We’ve gotten better every year since he’s been here. And jumping into what is arguably the best conference in the country, we have a 4-5 conference record and have not played an easy schedule. If we can finish in the middle of the conference, I would think he earns another year and I’d be fine to see where that goes for one more year. That said, even though last year was an improvement and technically on a positive trajectory, it’s clear we massively underperformed relative to the quality of team we had. And it’s clear that our team this year is nowhere close to where we’d all like to be (at least somewhat competitive w/ the upper tier teams in the conference).

[Minnesota Ute]

Only time will tell whose right, but I am totally out on Smith. OSU game was another p**s poor performance. Once again, it was another shot for Craig to play Keanu more and once again he only logged 15 min, while Ezra logged 27. And once again, he was productive and Ezra was also reasonably productive but not comparatively for the minutes. And others were less productive yet.

Before folks jump in, I know Keanu had some foul trouble, however he ended the game with 3 fouls, while Lovering and Whalin fouled out, and Ezra & Gabe ended with 4 fouls. So clearly there were more minutes for him to play if Smith allowed.

Ezra was the high scorer for the game with 18, but Keanu put up 10 in just 15 min. So they are literally both 0.66 points per minute. But ezra had 3 reb to kenau 3, Keanu was 2-3 from FT vs 6 of 12 for ezra. Keanu was 4 of 5 from field vs ezra 6 of 10. BPM was 13.1 vs 3.8, and other advanced stats follow.

Don’t get me wrong, I blame the loss mostly on Lawson who had a BPM of -22.2 (WOW), and Whalin had a terrible game for him as well (-1.9 BPM). But Smith has to take his share, because among other things WHY is Keller playing at all, let alone the same minutes as Keanu. I’m not trying to hate on him, however but for a random play, he contributes NOTHING. At a minimum, give his minutes to Keanu, then he’ll have 30 min and Ezra can still have his 25-30 min. I seriously don’t get it.

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