KSL said a Utah win would be an upset based on FPIs given 42% probability

This topic has 4 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 5 years ago by ironman1315.

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- 09/19/2019 at 4:16 PM #105351
  
  rbmw263
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  but s&p, Sagarin, and Vegas all give us about a 4 point edge. Utah is 16 spots higher in massey composite. So, essentially, their argument was math based while using the OUTLIER as evidence.. just….lol
- 09/19/2019 at 5:43 PM #105360
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  PhiladelphiaUte
  Participant
  
  Vegas lines are based on how people bet. Not how they feel the point spread would actually be.
  
  USC won’t likely make the same mistakes tomorrow as they had last weekend, and Utah hadn’t yet been challenged. I hope Utah is taking them as seriously now as they did back when they were trouncing Stanford.
  
  GO UTES!!!
  - 09/19/2019 at 7:25 PM #105367
    
    PlainsUte
    Participant
    
    Efficient market theory applies here. If the spread is not a good representation of the actual expected outcome then professionals will recognize it, lay big money and eventially the spread will meet reality. If not, someone will come up with a system to beat Vegas. Market inefficiencies could happen in lower level G5 teams but not for teams of the caliber of USC and Utah that get a lot of press coverage. Over the long haul Vegas spreads the day before a game are remarkable close to the actual outcomes.
- 09/19/2019 at 8:23 PM #105369
  
  EagleMountainUte
  Participant
  
  KSL is a lot like their classifieds. Full of s**t and scams.
- 09/19/2019 at 8:25 PM #105371
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  ironman1315
  Participant
  
  Line just moved to -3.5.
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