Line: -4.0

[NorthernUte]

Line is back down to -4.0, really wondering what’s going on with Cam

[Utesbyfive]

The line isn’t directly tied to injury reports, and never has been. It’s a number set by bookies to make sure that the money coming in on both sides is roughly even. It responds to bettors. Therefore if bettors start putting too much money down on Florida, then the line gets smaller to encourage betting on Utah. Bettors don’t have any more of an idea about Cam’s status than the rest of us supposedly.

This has to be restated quite often, because people who don’t gamble don’t understand how the line works.

[Ghost of the HEB]

As a gambler, the line is absolutely affected by injury reports. And books absolutely move the lines based on pertinent injury info because if they don’t they stand to lose a lot of money by letting everyone jump on a badly set line.

[Central Coast Ute]

As he said, the bookies don’t know more about Cam than you or I do, so his point is correct.

[Utesbyfive]

It’s only indirectly affected, as bettors start shifting their bets. In this case there is still no definitive injury report.

[Ghost of the HEB]

“One of the most obvious reasons you will see a betting line move is due to the absence of a key player or players. When a key player is suddenly expected to be absent from a game for any reason, bookmakers waste no time in adjusting their lines based on what they believe the key player is worth… The proliferation of social media has forced bookmakers to monitor Twitter aggressively to always try and stay ahead of the professional bettors. “

With so much money on the line, books will also employ sources to feed them with the latest information.

Why Betting Lines Move

[Anfernee]

Probably still recovering from anterior cruciate ligament surgery is my assumption.

[Ma’ake Kava]

When Whitt says he still doesn’t know who will start, that implies doubts about Cam, increasing the bets on Florida, or potential bettors on Utah are getting cold feet.

According to OnlyU, Cam is closer, is getting his timing down and the knee is improving.

Whitt doesn’t give a damn what betting people think, of course. That’s the furthest thing from his mind.

[EagleMountainUte]

According to Josh Nurse, Kuithe and Rising are good.

[Whitty]

I put zero stock into a tweet from Josh Nurse lol

[Onlyu]

I think that the line move is a definite reaction to the growing assumption that Cam won’t start. I’ve been told that the knee is healthy, strong and pain free and that Cam has been active and in his mind is ready to play.

However, being medically cleared is different from being game ready…has he taken any hits or played in live situations in camp? How important would that be prior to playing against Florida? Who makes that call to say “go”? Despite how Cam feels it’s the Doc who has the burden to decide if he can handle the risk (if there is any).

Evaluation continues…is our doc one who takes a calculated risk or pulls back on the reins? I think that’s the question we need an answer to.

[Ma’ake Kava]

From what we can piece together, if Cam plays it will be kind of like the Bo Nix peg-leg performance, at least in terms of avoiding contact and limiting explosive moves. That worked for the Ducks, but it was later in the season and their OL was fully dialed in. We’re in Game 1, a really big game, but OOC, with 10 other P5 games to go.

The Gators’ new DC – who has some continuity with the existing scheme and with Napier – is aggressive. “We like to negotiate with a hammer”.

They’ve had to seriously consider three different QBs, and Lud has been stewing on this game since spring. With unusual amounts of prep time and quality snaps for NJ and BB, I wonder if we’ll see both of them, with Cam as the insurance policy if we struggle.

Key to the game plan(s) is to make UF pay for being aggressive, get them to back off and try to prevent long drives. To me, it doesn’t make sense for UF to go crazy on pressure on the road at altitude. That’s a recipe for a dismal 4th quarter. Maybe play it straight up until you get a better bead on what the Utes are doing, *then* dial up the pressure.

For Utah, QB runs by BB and some nice throws by NJ would go a LONG way to blowing up their defensive assumptions and get Lud in the driver’s seat vs the rookie DC.

Games rarely unfold according to plan, of course, and I wouldn’t bet a dime on my ability to tell what Lud is going to do.

[2008 National Champ]

or, as noted philosopher Mike Tyson once said: everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth

[Tony (admin)]

Utesbyfive is correct. Bets move the line. There has been some big action on both sides apparently. The most recent on Florida.

[ProudUte]

Let’s just play the game and see what happens. I am getting sick of the line and all of the QB questions. It is what it is and I think we win tomorrow night.

Go Utes!!!

[The Miami Ute]

Seriously, I don’t think we see Rising or Kuithe until the UCLA game at the earliest. The first three games are obviously important for CFP posture but that’s about it. Just my gut, but I think KW really wants to win this last conference championship and will give Rising and Kuithe four more weeks to recover from their injuries.

[Author]

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