Looking ahead at conference race.

[HoosierUte]

It’s a four-horse race for two spots in the P12 title game. I looked through the remaining schedules of the three other teams, and potential losses I see:

UCLA: Oregon, USC

USC: UCLA

Oregon: UCLA, Utah, Washington, Oregon State

It looks like the Oregon game will be a must-win, as we would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with Oregon and UCLA if it came to that. So, assuming that Utah wins out, the best-case scenario would be Oregon over UCLA giving everybody at least 1 loss (with Utah over Oregon). The LA schools play each other, eliminating the loser, and it’s possible that the ducks drop one of UW/OS. 

tldr- way too much ball to play, but we are in a good position. Just win baby. 

[Extra Medium]

Wazzu isn’t a gimme. Not like AZ, Furd, and Colorado. I don’t like our chances in a neutral site rematch with USC or UCLA less our D takes a significant step forward.

[UteBacker]

Furd just beat a so-so Notre Dame team at their place.  I’m glad we have them at home, otherwise, I’d call that one a toss-up.

[Tony (admin)]

Stanford did win at Notre Dame. 

[Virginia Ute]

Oregon over UCLA

Utah over Oregon

USC over UCLA

 

If all of those teams win all of their other games and the above plays out, then we are in with a rematch against USC or Oregon.

I’d prefer it if the traitor schools ended up left out.  

[KoolWhitt]

Someone please correct me if I’m wrong, but I think if Utah wins out AND so do both USC and UCLA until they play each other, Utah gets the Rose Bowl regardless of the outcome of the CCG.

CCG Scenarios (if both of the above happen):

12-0 UCLA vs 10-2 Utah: if Utah wins, it goes to the Rose; UCLA may still qualify for the CFP, and if it does not, it likely still gets a NY6 game as a high ranking one-loss team (Cotton I would think). If UCLA wins, it is an undefeated conference champ and would make the CFP; Utah then still gets the Rose

11-1 USC vs 10-2 Utah: if Utah wins, it gets the Rose. If USC wins, it likely makes the CFP as a one loss conference champ with its only loss being a road game to the conference runner-up and by one point. USC would also boast wins over Utah, UCLA, and Notre Dame. Even if USC doesn’t get the CFP, they would get the Rose and Utah would have a very strong case for the Cotton. Rose is ideal, but Cotton is still NY6 and would be another major program highlight for us.

So if I have the above right, I think we need to root for both USC and UCLA the rest of the way, and then probably UCLA in the game between the two of them (because the Rose is a certainty for Utah- win or lose against UCLA in the CCG -whereas there is a small chance of USC not making the CFP as a one loss conference champ, and regardless of that I want another crack at UCLA on a neutral field).

All of the above is moot, though, if we drop another game. Tall task to win out too. Wazzu will be tough. Oregon will be very tough.

[Utesbyfive]

If the conference champ goes to the CFP, I think the Rose bowl can take it’s pick of whomever is left. If that’s a 2 loss USC, vs 3 loss Utah… I’m betting they pick USC.

[2008 National Champ]

You are correct. In 2016, Southern Cal went to the Rose Bowl without making the CCG. Colorado, the CCG loser, was demoted to the Alamo Bowl.

[Utah]

The cleanest path is for Utah and UCLA to win out. Then it’s Utah vs UCLA for the P12 title. 

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