Massey’s algorithm still likes Utah over Oregon by a slim margin

[dystopiamembrane]

masseyratings.com: Utah @ Oregon page

[RoboUte]

This is some kind of weird blind spot, there is very near a 0% chance we beat Oregon this year.

[dystopiamembrane]

I agree that it is a longshot, but in no way is it very near 0%.

[dystopiamembrane]

ESPN Analytics, for example, places the game at 55.3% in Oregon’s favour.

[RoboUte]

We’ve made QBs a lot worse than Bo Nix look a lot better than Bo Nix and Bo Nix is pretty good. What about or team is going to fundamentally change between now and then? Sure theres a chance but something big and unexpected is going to have to happen.

[dystopiamembrane]

big and unexpected is our calling card

[Charlie]

Other than Georgia, Oregon has played 1 game, UCLA, against a decent team. WSU looked very much equal to them. They will not play a top half team on the road until OSU. Oregon may be a top 10 team but we sure have not learned that yet. Their next 3 games make up the best part of their schedule. They play their toughest opponents at home which helps them greatly. Utah needs to overcome the road as much as overcome Oregon given some guys get healthy. Oregon will not beat USC if they play. I think they are favored against Utah at home but not at all a lock to win.

[Tony (admin)]

Hope I’m wrong but Massey seems to be on crack. 

[dystopiamembrane]

I believe Massey’s work to be well-designed and a more than acceptable system for ranking teams across the world of sport. 

[dystopiamembrane]

And, if it is not clear, Massey is not picking these games and probabilities himself. The algorithms that he has developed over decades make these numbers happen. 

[dystopiamembrane]

So, we can all question why this or that team is ranked where they are or why this or that team would win in a given contest, but this system is consistent and has been so for years. Barring improvement changes over the decades, data from a sports season 20 years ago would still produce the same rankings, probabilities, etc. as when they were ran live during that given season.

[EmersonUte]

hoping Washington shows us something in the passing game to help solve Oregon.  But yeah, I’m not putting bets on this one.  Doesn’t quite feel like this team has “it” this year.  

 

I’d love to see a projection removing the Georgia game from all their algorithms.  I watched that one and even though I don’t love Oregon – it was like watching my dog get run over on repeat.  

[The Miami Ute]

It would not surprise me at all if the Huskies beat the Ducks. That’s a big rivalry game and, realistically, anything can happen. Besides, the Ducks were dead and buried in the game versus Wazzu (down 34-22 with less than four minutes left) and somehow found a way to come back. Yeah, i know that they’ve looked good since the Georgia game, but, other than UCLA (who I think is overrated – remember, this is the same UCLA team that had to come back in the 4th QTR to beat South Alabama 32-31 at the Rose Bowl), they’ve yet to play anyone of real quality in their PAC 12 schedule. That starts to change tomorrow.

[Author]

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