Wouldn’t it be nice to be Bama or LSU? The loser of that game will most likely win out and still make the playoffs. They’re simply playing for seeding.
I think that a 1 loss SEC non-champion typically wouldn’t make it over another 1 loss P5 champ. But then again, you have the whole ‘quality loss’ BS. Also, Alabama has a greater chance of losing again – as opposed to LSU – because their remaining schedule is tougher. If LSU/Bama wins out and goes to the playoff, I’m doubtful the committee would want a semifinal rematch of that game by putting the lower seed @ #4.
Indeed Bama/LSU loser likely stays in top 4 (and doesn’t have risk of a loss in the SEC-title game knocking them down) and winner of that division could lose the SEC title game and not drop that far.
I think it depends on the loss. if it’s a 1-point game then I agree with you. If it’s a blow out then I think they drop, especially Bama as they have a worse schedule thus far than Utah.
I think it might be better for Utah if LSU lost that game, because ‘Bama still has to play at Auburn, and a ‘Bama loss @ Auburn is more likely than an LSU loss to Tx A&M in Death Valley.