9-3.
Too many new faces this year against too many new opponents. Oklahoma State comes before the team will truly have built it’s own identity (loss 1).
I’ve been banging the UCF drum since the schedule came out. That trip on a short holiday week against a team that would love to knock Utah out of a potential Conference Championship and potential CFP berth? If there’s a bigger trap game this year I haven’t seen it (loss 3).
Add in that no team, no matter how good, is able to play at their peak every week. Alabama v South Florida and UW v Arizona State would be two examples from last year. At Oregon State in 2021 would be another. I can’t pinpoint the 2nd loss right now but I can easily see a week where Rising is banged up or has to miss a start (WSU 2022) and the opponent is able to do enough to win a game that they shouldn’t on paper.
edit: Even though they are home games, both Arizona and TCU get Utah after a bye week. I’m not sure if it’s 2008/2010 TCU ptsd but that would be the 3rd loss for me if you put me in the patented arm bar and made me pick right now.