NIL Question

[GoUtes]

This new NIL era has been interesting to follow and it’s only two days in! I was just thinking and thought I would pose to the board a couple of my thoughts/questions:

1. What effect will this have on players leaving early (mainly basketball) for the draft? Will having additional money while in college incentivize them to stay in college longer? Or will the college players who actually earn a substantial amount (who will undoubtedly be the top players) still want to leave early to make much more with NBA contracts? 

2. What effect will this have on the transfer portal? Will players be more likely to stay at schools given that they may have local endorsement deals and may have built up a local fanbase? 

3. Who do you think this benefits more? The top blue-bloods, all P5 schools, top G5 schools? With scholarship limitations, I can’t imagine it helping Alabama/Clemson/USC/Ohio St. more in recruiting (they already get the top classes). Interesting to think about though.

Maybe the end effect won’t be too dramatic on college sports, in general. It will benefit the players, which is great. It will be fascinating to see how it all plays out going forward.   

[UteBacker]

GREAT questions!  I wonder if a player or two will stick around for their senior seasons now that they can earn income like this?  My guess though is that it won’t have a crazy effect on that one way or another.  It seems to me like the transfer portal mostly consists of players who aren’t going to get the playing time they desire.  I wonder if this level of athlete will really be at a level that is going to benefit a lot from the NIL?  I mean, how much endorsement money is there going to be available from a third-string defensive lineman?  

Here’s where I think the traditional blue-blood programs with huge donor bases are going to benefit:  Let’s take Alabama since they’re the current top dog.  Let’s say the local Tuscaloosa Ford dealership owner is an alum and huge athletic backer for the Alabama program.  Let’s also say that there’s a 5-star running back out of Florida that has an offer from every program in America.  What’s to stop that Ford dealer owner from offering that RB a $5,000,000 contract to do a couple of commercials?  So, in reality, Alabama has just paid a player to join their program right out in open daylight.  Let’s be honest here, there’s probably a lot of things like that going on as it is, but the NIL just makes it legal.  I support an athlete’s right to earn money from their likeness, but I think the smaller programs will be hard-pressed to even make the top 50 cuts of some of these stars.  They really aren’t now, but this kind of puts the final nail in that coffin.  

[noneyadb]

Does a 17yr old male endorsing an auto dealer make you want to run out and buy a car from said dealer?

Now replace the 17yr old kid with an 18-23yr old hot athletic college girl selling some golf clubs? 🤑🤑🤑.

[Johnny]

Agreed, this is where it can balance things out. However, I can see where things will get so out of control that a college education is unnecessary.

[younglurch]

I’ve been hoping to see some discussion on this board about this issue, so thanks for the great questions. To your point about the Ford dealership owned by a booster: technically what’s going to stop them from leveraging a $5 million contract to snag a highly rated recruit is the NIL rules. I’m pretty sure the NCAA’s new regulations don’t allow boosters to compensate athletes as “inducement for recruiting purposes.” Some big universities like Florida have already created policies which don’t allow booster compensation at all. 

Of course, I don’t have a ton of faith boosters and universities will follow these rules given the overall track record with illicit recruiting activity. 

To me what really needs to happen is congressional action that sets a universal standard. Right now the mishmash of state laws and university policies is too complicated and messy. I am nervous these curret rules will only further widen the talent gap and leave a school like Utah on the outside looking in. 

[krindor]

I’m pretty sure the NCAA’s new regulations don’t allow boosters to compensate athletes as “inducement for recruiting purposes.”

The NCAA literally doesn’t have any regulations on this. After the Supreme Court knocked their case out, they don’t want to do anything that looks like a limitation. Right now it’s a patchwork of various state laws and institutional regulations. So some states/universities will limit things like that…but others won’t.

Frankly, right now, it’s a cluster and things like that can/will happen. At this point, the NCAA is actively encouraging it to be a nightmare in the hopes that doing so will push congress to get involved and make a national standard.

[younglurch]

Not sure that you’re correct here. Per this CBS Sports Article: “In a Q&A distributed to school athletic directors and compliance departments, the NCAA also clarified that athletes can enter into NIL agreements with boosters “provided the activity is in accordance with state laws and school policy, is not an impermissible inducement and does not constitute pay-for-play.””

So that’s an indication of what I said: boosters technically cannot use NIL deals to lure recruits. How strictly this will be enforced is to be determined.
CBS Sports link

[UtahUtesRock]

My guesses are:

1. The players who are going to be automatic first round guys will leave as soon as they can realistically be taken in the draft at that level. Players who are likely to go in latter rounds or who are possibly not for sure money makers will probably have a tough decision to make. 

2. Again, I think you have to take the sure-fire stars out of this. I’m not sure they’d ever enter the portal to begin with. Some of the more top end portal talent, will have a tough decision. I wonder what somebody with a game changer reputation like a Darren Carrington or a Gionni Paul or some player of that level who considered coming to Utah might do? Locally you’d think there’d be somebody who’d through something at them to convince a player that would create that level of excitement. 

3. My guess here would be the cream of the crop in football and basketball will be business as usual? I would think this is just a way to help them legalize some of the things they’ve already been doing. I think this makes the next tier of clubs more competitive. 

[ProudUte]

Good questions.  I don’t know the answers and I really don’t think anyone else does.  What I do know is that there will be unintended consequences.  Some may be positive, but I suspect that there will be more negative surprises.  The unintended consequences of the portal need to be addressed, but I do not hear about any adjustments.

One talking head said it best.  Virtually every coach and organization will take things to the limit and many will cross the line as much as they think they can and get away with it, i.e., ASU, NE Patriots, etc.  The line has been moved and every coach and athletic director is trying to figure out how this new line can benefit them AND how far can we cross it and still get away with it.

I agree that it won’t make OSU, Clemson, or Alabama any better.  However, they are now set in concrete.  I believed that there was some hope for change.  I think this is now unlikely.  I think it does help our conference rivals USC and UCLA because they can improve and being located in the 2nd largest TV market in the country, they will be able to pay more for endorsements than the Utes could ever do.  It also helps Oregon because Nike can now legally do what they have been doing to a smaller extent.

Oh well.  We will just have to make the best of what we have to deal with.

[dystopiamembrane]

Our culture is about buying things and experiencing sexual activities. I would assume that most players will focus on those things.

[dystopiamembrane]

I am certainly willing to be wrong.

[noneyadb]

Is there performance stipulations attached to these payments? Kids signing multi-million dollar deals to sit on a bench, transfer, or quit- highly doubt that’ll make boosters happy.

 

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